ADP Is Here: QB Analysis

06/01/2011 12:22 PM -  Craig Davis

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Even though we’re still waiting “on hold” for this ridiculous NFL Lockout to subside, it’s never too early or too late to analyze what the rest of the fantasy football world is doing. I know this much… there have been hundreds of fantasy football drafts already taken place. The diehard fantasy football fanatic isn’t letting the lockout stop him/her from conducting business as usual. I know because I’ve already been involved in two drafts — the Fan Ex Fantasy Analysis Draft and the Dynasty Experts League.

And with every draft that takes place on the Internet, we get useful data to help us in determining the fantasy value of players… it’s called ADP (Average Draft Position). We get a sense of where the fantasy football world is drafting Michael Vick vs. Tom Brady or Jamaal Charles vs. Maurice Jones-Drew. We know when the first tight end is being drafted, on average. When are people drafting defenses… and who do they believe is the best DST this year?

FantasyFootball.com has taken all of this data and cleaned it up into one very impressive and useful OVERALL ADP tool. Granted, at the moment we only have two sources feeding into this powerful tool, but as the pre-season progresses, we’ll have more sources of ADP information to make our tool even more powerful. As I’ve browsed through this information, I’ve taken a few notes that I’d like to pass onto you… our loyal Total Dominance and Ultimate Dominance Members. Enjoy.

Today, my focus is on Quarterbacks.

- My overall thought is that there really aren’t that many surprises, overall, at this position. There is, however, one name that has popped up much higher than in year’s past… and that’s Michael Vick. Vick earned the starting job early last year when Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion and he never relinquished that job. Vick checks in with an ADP of 13, which puts him right at the top of the 2nd round. To me, that’s a bit high considering he struggled at the end of last year and in the playoffs, not to mention the fact he’s a major injury risk. I’ll let someone else deal with him at that price.

- It seems to me the QBs are getting more love than usual, which surprises me because when I look at the stats I see a lot more talent at that position than in year’s past. Usually when a position like QB is filled with more talent, fantasy owners hold off on that position until the 6th or 7th round. Instead we’ve been seeing a lot of QBs going in the top 5 rounds despite all the talent.

- Peyton Manning (ADP:33) and Drew Brees (ADP:30) are being drafted in the 3rd round while guys like Vick and Aaron Rodgers are going late-first/early-second round. So I can have a stud RB and a stud WR and still get Drew Brees in the 3rd round… or I can get a stud WR in the first along with Michael Vick, and then suffer at RB in the 3rd round? I think I’ll take my chances with a RB and a WR to go along with Brees or Manning. Sorry, that’s just me.

- Philip Rivers is almost guaranteed 4,000 yards and 30 TDs (especially with Vincent Jackson expected back), yet he’s falling to the 4th round (ADP:40) despite another good season in 2010. Rivers has been drafted in the 3rd round in the past, but has also seen his value fall to the 5th round… which is absolutely crazy. Even if you can get him later in the 4th round, consider it a steal.

- Tom Brady is going about the same time as Philip Rivers, but considering Brady was drafted a full round later last year, the value doesn’t seem as great with Mr. Magnificent.

- Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger are going a full two rounds later than Brady and Rivers, and even that might be a bit of a reach. Both Romo and Big Ben have had considerable injuries in the past and are a bit of a risk at this point. Not saying these two can’t produce those type of numbers, but be cautious.

- Josh Freeman’s ADP has gone up tremendously from just a year ago (ADP:84), which puts him at the front of the 7th round. That’s an early 7th-round pick in a 12-team league. If you consider where he was being drafted last year (as a low-end QB2), this is a major upgrade… but also a major risk for drafters based on just one solid season. Do you believe in Freeman or is he a one-year wonder? For my money, I believe in Freeman and the Bucs and have absolutely no problem taking him in the 7th round.

- Matthew Stafford is interesting because he played only three games in 2010, but his ADP from last year to this year has taken a huge leap. Obviously the fantasy nation is excited about Stafford… and rightfully so. He’s a talented young QB who has plenty of weapons all over the field. But can he stay healthy? I think that’s a HUGE “if” and if you’re drafting him to be anything more than a high-end QB2, you’re taking a major risk.

- Joe Flacco is Joe Flacco. His ADP is down from last year, but I’m still not sure he’s worth reaching for. Granted, he does have more speed at WR this year and Ray Rice is always a valuable weapon in the passing game, but nothing about Flacco “wows” me.

- St. Louis’ Sam Bradford is getting a ton of love this year compared to his rookie season, as his 107 ADP reflects. Personally, I think Bradford is eventually going to be as good as some of the greats today, especially now that he has Josh McDaniels calling plays. Bradford might not quite be a starter (QB1) at this point, but get him as a lofty QB2 and you won’t be sorry.

- Jay Cutler performed better last year than people though, but that still doesn’t mean they’re drafting him any higher this season. In this offense, Cutler could certainly get on a roll through the air, not to mention the ability to scramble. However, as high as I was on Cutler last year, I think I’ve soured on him a bit in 2011 and consider him nothing more than an average QB2.

- Carson Palmer is still being drafted as his ADP shows you can get him in about the 16th round of a 12-team draft. Crazy because we’re not even sure if he’s going to play again… yet people have confidence and are drafting him in a “just in case” scenario.

- If Kevin Kolb stays in Philly, he’ll be Michael Vick’s primary backup. So it’s a bit surprising that he’s being drafted as a top 20 QB. I guess most fantasy owners are assuming he’ll be moved to Minnesota, Seattle or Arizona before all is said and done.

- No love for Tim Tebow? Are fantasy owners assuming he’s going to lose his job to Kyle Orton?