Auction Strategies For All Experience Levels

08/09/2010 12:39 PM -  Craig Davis

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So maybe this is your first year playing in an auction league… or maybe it’s your 10th. Either way, the game is changing every  year and strategies change with it. You may have won a championship or two 10 years ago when RBs were the key to any fantasy roster. Times have changed. No longer can you ONLY focus on the workhorse running backs to fill your roster while filling in the pieces elsewhere. Quarterbacks are more valuable; wide receivers are more valuable; shoot, even tight ends are more valuable.

So what strategy works best? Where should you spend your budget when your 2010 auction commences? I’m glad you asked. I spent the last month participating in numerous auctions, imploring different strategies to show you which ones will likely score you the best, highest-scoring team on a week-to-week basis. Keep in mind, you might not end up with these same players at the same prices, but you can always work on a % of your budget and still come up with similar salaries.

Once you read over what I have to say, you can best determine the strategy for you. If you have any questions, please feel free to email me: craig@fantasyfootball.com. Enjoy.

1. The Stud RB Theory

The first strategy I implored was to load up on two stud RBs, filling in the other pieces of my starting lineup with whatever I had left over. My goals: Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. The great thing about an auction is that if I want them bad enough, I can have them. In a draft, there’s absolutely no chance I’m getting both Johnson and Peterson, and I’d have to have one of the top two or three draft slots to even have a shot. Here’s what it looked like:

Based on a $200 salary cap, I knew I was going to likely spend over 50% of my budget on just these two guys, but I was game. I mean, that’s exactly what I set out to do. So as Peterson’s name came out first, I waited until he got to $60 before I decided to jump in. I bid $61. He got bumped to $63. Someone else bumped to $64. The other guy bumped to $65. I jumped in at $66 which then got bumped to $67. I waited till the very last second until I bid $68. I won. Wow, 34% of my cap gone on one player… and I still had to get Chris Johnson. Well, to save space I’ll just tell you that I was able to get Johnson for $71 after some intense bidding. So, the draft had barely started, I already had the top two backs and almost 70% of my budget was gone. Obviously the jig was up and the other owners quickly figured out what I was doing. They started bidding players up because they knew I couldn’t hang with them financially, so it made it that much tougher to field a competitive team at the other positions. Here’s how my starting lineup panned out:

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI — $13 (7% of cap)
Chris Johnson, RB, TEN — $71 (35.5% of cap)
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN — $68 (33.5% of cap)
Roy Williams, WR, DAL — $5 (2.5% of cap)
Kevin Walter, WR, HOU — $5 (2.5% of cap)
Mohammed Massaquoi, WR, CLE — $2 (1% of cap)
Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN — $2 (1% of cap)
Shayne Graham, K, BAL — $1 (0.5% of cap)
Cowboys, DST, DAL — $1 (0.5% of cap)

TOTAL CAP USED ON STARTERS: $168 (84% of cap)

CONSENSUS: This is really not a great strategy because the game has changed so much. 10 years ago this strategy might have worked and I wish I had conducted this experiment back then. My WR corps sucks, my QB is good (I actually like Cutler more than most), my TE has a lot of question marks and the bench was really weak. Overall I could probably hang around for a while, but during the bye weeks of Peterson and Johnson I would have no chance… and that’s two guaranteed losses right there. Too risky.

2. The Stud WR Theory

The second strategy I wanted to try was the stud WR theory, i.e. getting the top-rated WRs while filling in the rest of the starting lineup with whatever I could. My goal was definitely to land Andre Johnson and then find a few other top 10 receivers who I valued higher than most… that way I could save a few dollars. After landing Johnson for $39, I waited for Roddy White’s name to come up because I believe he’ll easily be a top 5 WR when all is said and done and I felt I could land him cheaper than Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne. It worked… I got White for a mere $31 while Fitzgerald and Wayne both went for $36. The final piece to my puzzle was going to be Calvin Johnson, who I believe might be the most talented WR in the entire NFL. After some intense bidding, I landed Johnson for $32 and my WR corps was set. I adequately filled in the rest of my starting lineup and was quite pleased with the results:

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI — $13 (7% of cap)
Matt Forte, RB, CHI — $15 (7.5% of cap)
Reggie Bush, RB, NOS — $9 (4.5% of cap)
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU — $39 (19.5% of cap)
Roddy White, WR, ATL — $31 (15.5% of cap)
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET — $32 (16% of cap)
Jared Cook, TE, CIN — $2 (1% of cap)
Ryan Longwell, K, MIN — $1 (0.5% of cap)
Cowboys, DST, DAL — $1 (0.5% of cap)

TOTAL CAP USED ON STARTERS: $143 (71.5% of cap)

CONSENSUS: With each passing year I like this strategy more and more. Not only did I grab 3, top-10 WRs by most standards, but I landed a QB who I really like and didn’t have to spend a bundle for PLUS I got two running backs that can catch the ball. In a PPR format, this is priceless. Add a decent TE and this starting lineup should be able to compete on a weekly basis. And with only 72% of my cap gone, I can afford to draft quality backups at most positions. The more I look at this strategy, the more I like it.

3. No Studs, Completely Balanced Roster

The simple thing about this strategy is that you aren’t necessarily waiting for a particular player, but rather trying to build a balanced team across the board, having plenty of money left to buy your reserves. The stressful part is not having any “home run hitters” that you can count on for a HUGE game when you need it most. Sure, this team will score some points and could possibly be in contention for the playoffs, but it’s never going to lead the league in scoring and it’s probably not a championship caliber team unless one or two of these guys steps up and completely out-does his ADP. Here’s what this starting lineup looked like:

Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI — $10 (5% of cap)
Chris Wells, RB, ARZ — $25 (12.5% of cap)
Ryan Grant, RB, GBP — $21 (10.5% of cap)
Donald Driver, WR, GBP — $13 (6.5% of cap)
Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL — $20 (10% of cap)
Michael Crabtree, WR, SFO — $20 (10% of cap)
Owen Daniels, TE, HOU — $7 (3.5% of cap)
David Akers, K, PHI — $2 (1% of cap)
Cowboys, DST, DAL — $1 (0.5% of cap)

TOTAL CAP USED ON STARTERS: $119 (59.5% of cap)

CONSENSUS: I’m not 100% sold on this strategy either, mainly because I don’t feel like I have enough money in my starters. Granted, I’d probably have the deepest, most-talented bench in the league. This strategy doesn’t lock you in to one starting lineup either… because chances are you will have a bench player that becomes a starter at some point. This isn’t a horrible strategy, but it’s not one of my favorites either.

3. Get The Highest-Rated Player At QB, WR, and TE

Admittedly, this is the first I’ve heard of this strategy and I borrowed it from another message board, but it did make sense. You basically lock up the top QB (Aaron Rodgers), the top WR (Andre Johnson) and the top TE (could be Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, or Jermichael Finley). The problem… lack of solid, quality RB depth.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, GBP — $34 (17% of cap)
Marion Barber, RB, DAL — $10 (5% of cap)
Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA — $11 (5.5% of cap)
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU — $40 (20% of cap)
Hines Ward, WR, PIT — $8 (4% of cap)
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN — $8 (4% of cap)
Antonio Gates, TE, SDC — $20 (10% of cap)
Sebastian Janikowski, K, OAK — $1 (0.5% of cap)
Giants, DST, NYG — $1 (0.5% of cap)

TOTAL CAP USED ON STARTERS: $133 (66.5% of cap)

CONSENSUS: Aside from the stud-WR theory, this one might be my second favorite. I’m set at QB, thought I spent more than I wanted there. Spending $20 on a TE is not something I would normally do, but getting Andre Johnson makes total sense, especially in a PPR league. I’ve still got over 30% of my budget left for reserves and I should be able to “get by” with my RBBC running backs, though admittedly it’s a weakness.

5. Grab A Top-5 Player At Each Position (QB, RB, WR, and TE)

That’s pretty self-explanatory… and makes logical sense. If you can get at least one stud at every position, depth isn’t quite as important. Although it’s impossible to predict whether or not these players will actually end up in the top 5, we have a pretty good idea of which players will perform well throughout the year… even if they don’t end up in the top 5. This will likely be a little more expensive than the previous strategy, but it does provide a stud RB to go along with the other positions.

Peyton Manning, QB, IND — $26 (13% of cap)
Ray Rice, RB, BAL — $50 (25% of cap)
Reggie Bush, RB, GBP — $10 (5% of cap)
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND — $30 (15% of cap)
Donnie Avery, WR, STL — $4 (2% of cap)
Johnny Knox, WR, CHI — $4 (2% of cap)
Jermichael Finley, TE, GBP — $16 (8% of cap)
Ryan Longwell, K, MIN — $1 (0.5% of cap)
Cowboys, DST, DAL — $1 (0.5% of cap)

TOTAL CAP USED ON STARTERS: $142 (71% of cap)

CONSENSUS: And suddenly a new strategy emerges that has piqued my interest. My starting lineup is stout, my RB2 and WR2/WR3 aren’t terrible, and I still have nearly 30% of my budget for backups. Each week I’m guaranteed that I have at least one potential “home run hitter” and I was also able to package the tandem of Manning to Wayne to give me double points on a few occasions. Ray Rice gives me at least 50 more points because of his receptions and I was able to lock up another RB, Reggie Bush, who should be able to get me some cheap points in the passing game as well. Overall, this is a great strategy as long as the other owners don’t figure out what you’re doing and start bidding up your top-5 players.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are other strategies that you could undertake, but these seem to be some of the most popular I’ve seen over the last few years. I wanted to show you what your roster might look like, should you decide to take one of these paths. Of these listed, my favorite strategies might be the stud-WR theory or the “Get a top-5 at all positions” strategy, but that doesn’t mean they’re perfect. Don’t nominate players you actually intend on bidding on, or other owners will run the price up on you.

Don’t tip your hand too early, but also don’t pass up on a player you really like just because he went a dollar or two higher than you were thinking he was worth. Bid for value, look for sleepers and bargains, and continually update your budget during the auction.

Unless you are dead set on getting a top 5 QB, look to spend between 8% and 12% on your QB.

If you aren’t locked in to one of the top 5 TEs, don’t worry about spending more than 5%-6% of your budget on this position.

Don’t spend more than $2 on any kicker or DST, period.

If you have any questions, please feel and shoot me an email: craig@fantasyfootball.com.