Fantasy Analysis: Justin Forsett

11/19/2009 8:20 PM -  Mike Woellert

As we head into week 11 with tonight’s Thursday Night Football match-up between the Panthers and the Dolphins, let’s look at two intriguing running backs that were this week’s waiver wire grabs this week.  In most cases, Justin Forsett was grabbed with a high waiver priority or he was bid on heavy in waiver wire bidding:

Justin Forsett is on track to make his first career start this week against the Vikings.  He’s been a bit more explosive and versatile than Julius Jones and has more upside in Seattle’s offense.  His numbers show that he has the ability to gain nice chunks of yardage and do some real damage against his opponents.  Out of the 555 plays that the ‘Hawks have ran this season, he’s been involved in 19 run and 100 pass plays (the others, he was called into block).  Week 2 really put him on the map and fantasy radars when he ran the ball 6 times for 36 yards and threw in another 6 receptions for 57 yards.  At 5′8″ and 194 lbs, can he handle a workload of an everydown back?  He had 22 total touches in week 10, where he ran the ball 17 times for 123 yards and a score.  He also tacked on 5 catches for 26 yards on 8 targets.  In PPR leagues, he’d be a fantasy goldmine down the stretch, if not for two things; 1) His first start comes against Minnesota and 2) Julius Jones is set to return in week 12.  I think he’s talented enough to hold off Julius Jones for the lead back and to accumulate the majority of the touches.  When you look at his YPC, you can see he knows how to find the holes and makes the most of them.  He has a 6.6 YPC average on his 37 carries this season (and that includes his 17 in week 10).  I also like the fact that he received 16 targets in the passing game in the past two weeks.  It will remain to be seen if he can handle the pounding of an everydown back and he’ll definitely get the opportunity against Minnesota.  The case against Forsett remaining the everydown back is the Vikings rush defense.  Through week 10, the Vikings have only allowed 2 rushing TDs all season (Ray Rice scored both) and are allowing, on average, 94.6 YPG (on 4.2 YPC) and over the last 3 weeks, have only given up 103 yards rushing between weeks 8 through 10.  The Vikings, also, have not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season (Steven Jackson rushed for the most; 84 yards).  The Vikings are also stingy in defending the pass against opposing running backs and haven’t given up a receiving TD against an opposing running back.  Lastly, the only other team that’s giving up less fantasy points per game against opposing running backs are the Pittsburgh Steelers.  That being said, with the rash of injuries that have hit running backs recently, I think Justin Forsett makes a very solid flex option, if not an RB2 with upside if you have multiple running backs on the training table.