Fantasy Consistency: 2011 Running Backs

06/30/2011 3:40 PM -  Craig Davis

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Everyone has their opinion on which RBs are going to “potentially” be a top 10 guy. It happens every year.

You hear it in chat rooms, message boards and even around the draft table. We’re all guys with massive egos and testosterone pumping through out bodies, and we like to think we’re right every time we make a prediction.

The problem is… as seasoned fantasy players we can’t take those type of chances in the first round. If anything, we have to be ultra conservative with our first round picks or it could have disastrous results on our season.

Just because you think Knowshon Moreno is as good as any RB in the league (which he might be), taking him in the first round to stroke your ego could be a catastrophic decision. For starters, the guy plays on a losing team with a running QB. Secondly, he hasn’t proven the ability to stay healthy for a full season. Could he finish the season as an RB1?

Absolutely.

But do you want to be the guy to take the chance on him in the first round when you can likely get him in the third or fourth?

Something I’ve learned over the years is that you need to strive for CONSISTENCY when making your first round selection. You absolutely have to go after a guy who has proven himself for at least two seasons. Take Arian Foster, for example.

I’ve seen a number of mock drafts that have Arian Foster going #1 overall, and I think that’s a huge risk for a potential one-year-wonder. Hardly ever do guys who carry the ball over 300 times the previous year repeat that performance the following season.

I’m not saying Foster isn’t capable of posting first-round numbers, but I’m not going to be the guy to take that chance unless he’s sitting there in the second half of the first round. Foster could very well be a top 5 fantasy RB again this year, but he has a few things against him that scare me away.

- First off, he touched the ball 393 times. That’s a HUGE workload for anyone, let alone a guy who was handed the starting job based on another guy’s injury.

- Second, he had minor knee surgery in the off-season.

- Third, Ben Tate is fully healthy and WILL take some of those touches away from Foster, especially in the red zone.

Again, I’m not telling you to NOT draft Foster in the first round, I’m just trying to stuff you with a little knowledge before you draft your first team… you need to have all the facts.

Again, Foster could easily be the best fantasy back in the league again, but the odds are against him and if I have the #1 overall pick in my fantasy draft, I’m either taking Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice…. OR…. I’m trading it away for more picks.

So, that being said, it’s time to discuss what I really came here to discuss today… fantasy RB consistency.

Which RBs have been the most consistent over the years and which ones qualify as a conservative yet productive first round pick?

Let’s look back at the last five seasons to see which RBs have finished in the top 10 more than just one season (One interesting note: Six of the top 10 RBs last season were “first-time offenders”, meaning it was their first time to finish in the top 10 in their career. Those were Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy, and Rashard Mendenhall).

(Another important note: I’m not saying to pass up McCoy or Foster in the first round, I’m just giving you all the facts so you can draft based on information rather than emotion).

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First, let’s look back at the last 5 years and see how many RBs repeated one top 10 finish with another top 10 finish the following season. You’ll be surprised to find out that it’s usually 50% or less.

2010 — Only three RBs repeated their 2009 success with another top 10 finish in 2010. Those were Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Ray Rice. The other seven either failed to reach the top 10 because of injury or lack of performance.

2009 — Again, only three RBs repeated their 2008 success with another top 10 finish in 2009. Those were Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson and Thomas Jones. The other seven either failed to reach the top 10 because of injury or lack of performance.

2008 — Four RBs repeated their top 10 success from 2007 with another top 10 finish in 2008. Those were Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, Ladainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. The other six were hindered by injury or lack of performance.

2007 — Same ole’ suspects. Ladainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Frank Gore were the only “repeat offenders” from 2006 to 2007 as top 10 finishers. The other seven were hampered by injury or lack of performance.

2006 — This year was actually a 50% return rate… the highest over the last five years. Tiki Barber, Larry Johnson, Ladainian Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson and Steven Jackson finished in the top 10 in both 2005 and 2006. The other five failed to deliver based on injury or lack of performance.

It doesn’t get any better that further back we go either… as only two times in the last 10 years and three times in the last 15 years have more than five RBs repeated their success in the top 10 the following season. Not once in the last 15 years have more than six RBs finished in the top 10 in back-to-back seasons.

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TOP 10 FANTASY RB FINISHES OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS (number of top 10 finishes)

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (4) — Peterson has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five seasons. He’s the model of consistency and, barring injury, should finish in the top 10 again in 2011.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (3) — Three top 10 finishes in the last five seasons, but younger RBs are starting to get more involved in the offense. He’ll likely be close to the top 10 again this year, but he’s a risky first round pick and I’d suggest looking elsewhere unless you have the last pick in the first round.

3. Ladainian Tomlinson, Jets (3) — His run is over. Granted, he did a lot better in New York than most of us thought he would, but LT is nothing more than a quality backup to Shonn Greene… the new starter in Jets’ land.

4. Frank Gore, 49ers (3) — Injuries always seem to hamper this guy, yet he’s produced three top 10 finishes in the last five years. With the addition of Kendall Hunter and a new head coach who loves to throw the ball, Gore is a risky first round pick in 2011.

5. Joseph Addai, Colts (3) — I guess this is his year to dominate again, because he’s had three top 10 finishes the last five years but never back-to-back. Injuries have also killed Addai’s fantasy value from year to year, and with Delone Carter and Donald Brown begging for carries, Addai is NOT a first round pick.

6. Brian Westbrook, 49ers (3) — His damage was done with the Eagles, and it’s not even likely the Niners will bring him back for 2011 when the CBA deal is done. It was a nice run Westy. I was honored to have you in my fantasy backfield every year.

7. Thomas Jones, Chiefs (2) — The Bears and Jets were able to give him the opportunity to dominate, but with an age on the wrong side of 30 and Jamaal Charles taking away more and more of his carries, Jones is simply a handcuff to Charles at this point. He did more than anyone thought he would do.

8. Steven Jackson, Rams (2) — One can only wonder what Jackson would have done if not hampered by a nagging hamstring or if he played on a competent offense. What is Jackson were drafted by the Colts or Saints??? Jackson likely won’t be drafted in the first round of many 2011 fantasy drafts, but he’s more than capable of producing like a first-round pick in this new offense.

9. Ray Rice, Ravens (2) — Back-to-back seasons in the top 10 after carrying the ball only 107 times during his rookie year of 2008. A definite first-round pick and possibly a top 3 back in a PPR league. Some are frustrated about his lack of consistency from game-to-game, but in the end Rice should be right there near the top again.

10. Michael Turner, Falcons (2) — The problem with Turner is that he got started late. After serving many seasons as LT’s backup, Turner burst onto the scene his first year with the Falcons. The biggest things holding him back are injuries and the fact he’s not a pass-catching back. Borderline first round pick in 2011.

11. Matt Forte, Bears (2) — After a great rookie season, Forte slumped in his sophomore year before turning it back up a notch last season. Forte’s value lies mainly in the passing game as he’s not considered a brusing, between-the-tackles runner. Forte likely won’t be a 15 TD per season guy, but as long as he’s catching passes from Jay Cutler, his value remains high.

12. Chris Johnson (2) — Lightning in a bottle. Johnson posted such absolutely sick numbers in 2009, he couldn’t go anywhere but down. Still, even in a down year Johnson finished in the top 10 for the second consecutive season. He’s been going anywhere from #1 to #5 in mock drafts right now, and he’s definitely earned that ranking.

13. Clinton Portis, Free Agent (2) — His career is likely over… it was a good run while it lasted.

The rest of the running backs have had just one season in the top 10.

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So what have we learned?

Consistency, while important, doesn’t guarantee a player is going to repeat his previous year’s performance. Having said that, first round picks are so crucial to your fantasy success… so don’t blow it. If you’re sitting with the #5 pick and you’re trying to decide between a guy who has consistently finished in the top 10 vs. a guy who has been there only once, you might want to err on the side of caution and take the more consistent RB.