FF502: Real Value Drafting Theory Part I

08/13/2005 12:47 PM -  Craig Davis

Contributed By: Craig Davis

Draft Strategy. What is it? What is the best way for you to approach a fantasy football draft? You might be a fantasy football rookie and need some direction… or, you could be a seasoned veteran who is sick and tired of missing the playoffs. You prepare for hours at a time before your draft, yet year in and year out you finish in the middle of the pack or worse!!! YOU JUST CAN’T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!

What is going wrong?

Why is a seemingly good draft not good enough to make it to the playoffs? You’ve heard all the strategies before: Draft two running backs with your first two picks, then get a QB. Or, get two RBs first, two receivers next, then a QB. Others say QBs are the most important, and once you draft one, your next pick should be his main receiver. Sheesh!! It’s all non-sense. All of it. Oh sure, one of those rinky dink strategies might work one year on a complete fluke, but it’s no way to draft your fantasy football team on a yearly basis. You might as well let someone kick you in the face, because that’s the same feeling you’ll get after missing the playoffs every year.

So, what’s the answer??

Let me first say that there is no sure proof way to win your fantasy league… PERIOD! There is, however, a way to draft the most valuable team available to you. Will this give you automatic ticket to the fantasy Super Bowl? No, but it puts you well ahead of your competition before the season even starts. You see, not many people believe in the “real value” theory until they try it. They automatically think that just because a top quarterback will score more fantasy points than a top running back you should draft him (QB) and get the running back in a later round. Yeah, I know that sounds foreign and doesn’t make sense, but it soon will. Let me try and explain:

Let’s say you have the seventh pick in a 12-team yardage/scoring performance league. The first six picks were all running backs. The clock is ticking. Beads of sweat begin to run down your forehead. Tick tock, tick tock. What to do? Who do you draft without getting laughed at? How can you feel confident that you’ve “made the right selection?? How can you avoid the embarrassment of making the wrong selection? WHO DO I DRAFT AND WHY AM I DRAFTING HIM? Those are good questions — and we’ve got good answers!

For those of you who have been with us (FantasyFootball.com) since 1999, you know all about REAL VALUE. You didn’t have any trouble deciding between a backup tight end and a third string quarterback. REAL VALUE is the result of fantasy point comparisons among players in the same position versus the point comparison among players at other positions. I know it sounds complicated but it’s really very basic.

Starting Lineups

Most leagues require starting lineups. Very few scoring performance leagues require you to start everyone on your roster, therefore, you must select who you choose to start on a weekly basis. These starting lineups are usually consistent throughout the league. Not many leagues allow one team to start 3 WRs and 2 RBs and the other team to start 4 RBs and 1 WR anymore. League commissioners want consistency and, therefore, require EVERYONE to start the same number of players to start at each position. Basic starting lineups consist (usually of) 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, a TE, PK, and DST. There are still some leagues out there that will allow league owners to choose a flex player (RB, WR, or TE). That means some teams could be starting 3 total RBs and others could be starting 3 total WRs. Still, it won’t make much difference when using REAL VALUE as your draft strategy.

Player Scoring Comparisons

Assuming we use a basic scoring/yardage performance league (3 pts. per passing TD/6 pts. per rushing/receiving TD/1 pt. per every 10 yards rushing/receiving/1 pt. per every 20 yds. passing/1 pt. per reception), Quarterback E scored 275 fantasy points, Tight End B scored 121 fantasy points, Running Back I scored 208 fantasy points, Place Kicker C scored 134 fantasy points, and Wide Receiver H scored 178 fantasy points. So, which player was more valuable? Well, the obvious answer would be Quarterback A because he scored the most fantasy points, right? Sorry, wrong answer. Let’s take a look. Using the standard starting lineup (1QB – 2RB – 3WR – 1TE – 1PK – 1 DST) we’ll compare how each of the players previously mentioned stacked up, in fantasy value, against the other top players at his respective position. We’ll then compare those numbers with the numbers of the players at the other positions to see, in fact, who actually is more valuable. Using a 12-team fantasy league as our standard we know that every week a total of 12 quarterbacks will start in your league. 12 fantasy teams x 1 QB starting for each team = 12 quarterbacks. This is the same for kickers and tight ends. However, there will be 24 running backs and 36 wide receivers that start every week. 12 teams x 2 RB starting for each team = 24 running backs. 12 teams x 3 WR starting for each team = 36 wide receivers. Below is a list of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, top 24 running backs, and top 36 wide receivers, along with the top 12 TEs and top 12 kickers:

QB’S	FANTASY PTS.	RB’S	FANTASY PTS.	WR’S	FANTASY PTS.
1. A	319	1. A	341	1. A	242
2. B	300	2. B	273	2. B	239
3. C	292	3. C	260	3. C	209
4. D	282	4. D	257	4. D	204
5. E	275	5. E	242	5. E	187
6. F	266	6. F	227	6. F	185
7. G	262	7. G	214	7. G	179
8. H	261	8. H	208	8. H	178
9. I	257	9. I	208	9. I	172
10. J	255	10. J	190	10. J	167
11. K	250	11. K	183	11. K	167
12. L	249	12. L	180	12. L	164
		13. M	179	13. M	163
		14. N	166	14. N	156
		15. O	163	15. O	155
		16. P	159	16. P	154
		17. Q	156	17. Q	149
		18. R	156	18. R	148
		19. S	145	19. S	147
		20. T	144	20. T	145
		21. U	140	21. U	140
		22. V	139	22. V	136
		23. W	134	23. W	136
		24. X	130	24. X	135
				25.Y	135
				26. Z	132
				27. AA	132
				28. BB	129
				29. CC	128
				30. DD	126
				31. EE	121
				32. FF	120
				33. GG	120
				34. HH	119
				35. II	115
				36. JJ	101

TEs	FANTASY PTS.	PKs	FANTASY PTS.
1. A	130	1. A	139
2. B	121	2. B	136
3. C	92	3. C	134
4. D	91	4. D	132
5. E	90	5. E	130
6. F	86	6. F	125
7. G	83	7. G	123
8. H	82	8. H	123
9. I	77	9. I	122
10. J	77	10. J	119
11. K	75	11. K	119
12. L	67	12. L	118

Okay, now you’ve seen the numbers, so what next? How do I determine a player’s REAL VALUE? Which of the players previously mentioned was the most valuable in this particular year? If you answered Running Back S, you might be well on your way to a championship in your league.

A player’s overall fantasy point total isn’t the best indication of how they will help your team. If all 5 players were still on the draft board and it was my pick, it’s a “no-brainer” that I would take RB S because his “REAL VALUE“, compared to the other position players, is higher. Still lost? Let’s continue. Now that we have each of the players’ total fantasy points scored, we need to determine their REAL VALUE. How do we do that? Simple.

Subtract the fantasy points of the lowest “STARTER” at each position from the players previously mentioned to their respective position. Since we determined there are 12 teams and 3 receivers starting for each team every week, then you can conclude that 36 receivers are going to start each week. The 36th rated WR would be your “core” receiver… or lowest starter every week. Some of you refer to the “core” player as the BASELINE. These two are one in the same, but I’ve always called this player the core player. It sounds better.

The number you arrive at after subtracting the core player’s total fantasy points from any other player at that position tells you what his REAL VALUE is. Remember, the key here is making sure you figure out a) how many teams are in the league and b) what the “starting lineup” requirements are. Now, subtract Quarterback L’s (core or lowest starter/QB) fantasy points from Quarterback E’s fantasy points and you come up with 26 (275 minus 249). That number (26) is Quarterback E’s REAL VALUE. Now subtract Running Back X’s (core or lowest starter/RB) fantasy points from Running Back I’s fantasy points…you should come up with 78 (208 minus 130). Do the same for WR, PK, and TE (this also applies for defense/special teams or even individual defensive players) and you should get 77 REAL VALUE pts. for Wide Receiver H, 54 REAL VALUE pts. for Tight End B, and 16 REAL VALUE pts. for Place Kicker C. You must remember, the object is not to score the most points every week (even though that would be nice). The real object is to outscore your opponent each and every week, even if it’s by one or two points. To take it a step further, not only do you want to outscore your opponent, but you want to outscore him/her at every position, if possible.

QB’S	F PTS.	R VALUE	RB’S	F PTS.	R VALUE	WR’S	F PTS.	R VALUE
1. A	319	70	1. A	341	211	1. A	242	141
2. B	300	51	2. B	273	143	2. B	239	138
3. C	292	43	3. C	260	130	3. C	209	108
4. D	282	33	4. D	257	127	4. D	204	103
5. E	275	26	5. E	242	112	5. E	187	86
6. F	266	17	6. F	227	97	6. F	185	84
7. G	262	13	7. G	214	84	7. G	179	78
8. H	261	12	8. H	208	78	8. H	178	77
9. I	257	8	9. I	208	78	9. I	172	71
10. J	255	6	10. J	190	60	10. J	167	66
11. K	250	1	11. K	183	53	11. K	167	66
12. L	249	0	12. L	180	50	12. L	164	63
			13. M	179	49	13. M	163	62
			14. N	166	36	14. N	156	55
			15. O	163	33	15. O	155	54
			16. P	159	29	16. P	154	53
			17. Q	156	26	17. Q	149	48
			18. R	156	26	18. R	148	47
			19. S	145	15	19. S	147	46
			20. T	144	14	20. T	145	44
			21. U	140	10	21. U	140	39
			22. V	139	9	22. V	136	35
			23. W	134	4	23. W	136	35
			24. X	130	0	24. X	135	34
						25.Y	135	34
						26. Z	132	31
						27. AA	132	31
						28. BB	129	28
						29. CC	128	27
						30. DD	126	25
						31. EE	121	20
						32. FF	120	19
						33. GG	120	19
						34. HH	119	18
						35. II	115	14
						36. JJ	101	0

TEs	FANTASY PTS.	REAL VALUE	PKs	FANTASY PTS.	REAL VALUE
1. A	130	63	1. A	139	21
2. B	121	54	2. B	136	18
3. C	92	25	3. C	134	16
4. D	91	24	4. D	132	14
5. E	90	23	5. E	130	12
6. F	86	19	6. F	125	7
7. G	83	16	7. G	123	5
8. H	82	15	8. H	123	5
9. I	77	10	9. I	122	4
10. J	77	10	10. J	119	1
11. K	75	8	11. K