FF509: Breakout Season Analysis: WRs

While statistics have some bearing on determining the future production of wide receivers, it is not the only criterion because there are so many factors in play. Any wide receiver that can produce at least 800 yards and eight touchdowns is a very valuable commodity, but those numbers aren’t the only things that can make a wide receiver valuable. When looking for sleeper candidates to have good, or even monster, seasons, it is most important to consider the situation a wide receiver is in. A situation is ultimately more responsible for a player’s success than anything else.

Thus, the breakout performers fall into five categories:

1) Instant Sensations
These guys are rookies who catch on very quickly. They often go to teams with good offenses and good quarterbacks. Sometimes there are players who excel immediately because they are often the only target a quarterback has, or they are just so talented they put up numbers despite not having Joe Montana throwing to them. Examples of these players include:

Guys like Colston, Moss, Jefferson, and White were all talented and became instant successes in large part to the offenses they became a part of. All four had successful quarterbacks throwing to them (Drew Brees, Randall Cunningham, Dan Fouts, and Fran Tarkenton respectively) and coaches who believed in throwing the football. Any player that steps into a good offense has a chance to be very productive right away. Boldin and Williams, on the other hand, joined teams that were in bad shape and lacking all-pro quarterbacks, but because they had talent and because those teams had to pass often, both turned into viable fantasy players. Evans and Lipps had more celebrated teammates (Eric Moulds and John Stallworth) that drew attention away from them and set them up to be long-distance threats. Evans also had a reasonably solid quarterback in Drew Bledsoe, where Lipps somehow managed to do his scoring with the less-than-stellar Mark Malone and David Woodley. Harrison is best known as Peyton Manning’s sidekick, but his good rookie campaign was with Jim Harbaugh. Harrison’s overall talent was what made the difference. When evaluating rookie receivers who could make an impact you have to take a major look at what type of team they are going to. It’s easy to say Mr. X is going to do great because he was so talented at state U, but Mr. Unknown from a small school could easily do better because of his situation.

2) The Late Bloomers
These are the guys who show flashes of talent early in their career, but they usually don’t start making a major fantasy impact any earlier than their second year, and often not until their third, fourth or even fifth seasons. Some take even longer. A new coaching staff or quarterback can make all the difference for many of these players. Some guys may take a little longer to learn a complicated system like the West Coast offense or they are stuck behind incumbent starters and don’t get a chance to play. Here are some players that fit this pattern:

Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (2006) – 2^nd year
46 catches, 816 yards, nine touchdowns (one rushing)
Donte Stallworth, New Orleans Saints (2005) -4^th year
70 catches, 945 yards, seven touchdowns
Javon Walker, Green Bay Packers (2004) – 3^rd year
89 catches, 1,382 yards, 12 touchdowns
Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals (2003) – 3^rd year
90 catches, 1,355 yards, 10 touchdowns
Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers (2002) -5^th year
112 catches, 1,329 yards, 12 touchdowns

In looking at this long list (and I probably could publish an encyclopedia of late blooming wide receivers), it’s critical to look at team situations. Henry Ellard is not as well known as some of the folks on this list, but he’s a perfect example. During the early chunk of Ellard’s career the Rams ran the ball all the time with Eric Dickerson. By 1988, Dickerson was in Indianapolis and head coach John Robinson re-invented the Los Angeles offense into a wide-open aerial circus featuring the right arm of Jim Everett. Ellard’s numbers exploded. The same goes for Rison, who was traded by Indianapolis to Atlanta in 1990. Indianapolis was utilizing Dickerson in a conservative scheme and Rison ended up in a run-and-shoot attack. Jeffries also benefited when Houston went to that offense full-time.

A new coach or quarterback can often help certain players a great deal, as in the case of Chad Johnson. Ever since Marvin Lewis started coaching the Bengals, Johnson has been a top fantasy receiver. The arrival of Carson Palmer has definitely played a big role in Chad’s success, but his first monster season occurred with Jon Kitna at the controls. Tim Brown (who had some injury issues very early in his career) was helped when the Raiders signed Jeff Hostetler in 1993, and Hines Ward started to take off during the brief resurgence of Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox. Ward had a good yardage campaign in 2001 but only four touchdowns, so 2002 is really when Hines made his biggest initial impact.

Some of these guys just needed a break to post bigger numbers. Stallworth didn’t have much at quarterback in the forgotten New Orleans Saints season of 2005, but when Joe Horn’s play started to falter, he stepped up. Moulds also falls into this category when Andre Reed starting to fade into the sunset. Darrell Jackson and Javon Walker are great examples of guys who didn’t make an impact right away due to learning complex offenses, but eventually figured things out and started posting good numbers (it should be said Walker had nine touchdowns in 2003, but his yardage totals that season weren’t special). Reggie Brown is a bit of an odd case. He’s a guy who could have made more of an impact his rookie season, but he didn’t step into a starting spot until Philadelphia suspended Terrell Owens. He’s another guy where you have to emphasize the situation. He’s nowhere near as physically gifted as Randy Moss, but he’s in a good offense with a good quarterback and has a good attitude. Plenty of owners probably took Moss way ahead of Brown in 2006 and got burned.

Branch and Monk are examples of very talented guys who found themselves on good teams and eventually made an impact, but with free agency fewer of those guys are around. Troy Brown would be the closest modern day example, hanging around long enough with New England to become a good player, but he never posted numbers comparable to Branch and Monk. These are the guys you really have to keep an eye on, because it’s this type of player that can often make or break your fantasy season. Figuring out who is going to step out can win you a title, and again it all starts with the situation.

3) The Sidekicks
These guys often play second fiddle to an established franchise quarterback and/or wide receiver (think Montana/Rice, Manning/Harrison, Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson), but once they make their mark, good seasons of fantasy production follow. Sometimes they even upstage their more well-known teammates. We will now list some of these players and their first big season of production:

4) The Out of Nowhere Club
While every owner likes to think they have drafted a team that’s going to be the fantasy equivalent of the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the odds are you’ll have to make some roster moves during the season. And that’s where this club comes from. Many of these guys were never on, or barely on, anyone’s radar screen. If you can unearth these guys on draft day you are way ahead of the curve. But even if you end up snagging them off the waiver wire, you are doing your team a great service. And now let’s call roll:

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (2006)
70 catches, 1,038 yards, eight touchdowns
Mike Furrey, Detroit Lions (2006)
98 catches, 1,086 yards, six touchdowns
Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets (2006)
82 catches, 961 yards, six touchdowns
Drew Bennett, Tennessee Titans (2004)
80 catches, 1,247 yards, 11 touchdowns
Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers (2002)
70 catches, 1,064 yards, nine touchdowns
Rod Smith, Denver Broncos (1997)
70 catches, 1,180 yards, 12 touchdowns
Bill Brooks, Buffalo Bills (1995)
53 catches, 763 yards, 11 touchdowns
Michael Haynes, Atlanta Falcons (1991)
50 catches, 1,122 yards, 11 touchdowns
Drew Hill, Houston Oilers (1985)
64 catches, 1,169 yards, nine touchdowns

Congratulations to Marques Colston for showing up twice in this report, but very few people knew about him when 2006 began. Just as few knew Mike Furrey, but again it comes back to the overall situation a player is in. Furrey joined a team that was desperate for receiving help and a team that loved to throw the ball with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The situation and system also were big for Driver, Smith, and Haynes. On the other hand, guys like Cotchery and Hill came from teams that were expected to be bad. We know the 2006 Jets made the playoffs and the 1985 Oilers indeed turned out to be dismal, but both teams threw the ball frequently and if you can find someone who can step up on a bad team early in the season, you will likely out-scout many of your opponents. Brooks took advantage of numerous injuries to make his mark in Buffalo, while Bennett is an example of a guy who obtained minor publicity in 2003 and then went crazy in 2004. Once in awhile you’ll see someone like Bennett, who didn’t do enough to be included in the Late Bloomer category, but for the most part these guys emerge from “I never heard of that guy” status.

5) The Over the Hill Gang Society
In the 1970s, Washington Redskins coach George Allen took a cast of characters known as “The Over The Hill Gang” to the 1972 Super Bowl. Allen wanted a lot of veterans because they would make fewer mistakes and could master his system quicker. In this category, you exclude guys like Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice. Guys like that will still be in demand well into their 30s. The players in this category are guys who had fallen out of favor with most fantasy owners and many felt they would never hit their stride again. But these over-30 players proved they still could hang with a younger crowd.

Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2005)
83 catches, 1,287 yards, 10 touchdowns (33 at the start of the season)
Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Panthers (2004)
93 catches, 1,405 yards, 16 touchdowns (31)
Eddie Kennison, Kansas City Chiefs (2004)
62 catches, 1,086 yards, eight touchdowns (31)
Keenan McCardell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2003)
84 catches, 1,174 yards, eight touchdowns (33)
Ed McCaffrey, Denver Broncos (1998)
64 caches, 1,053 yards, 10 touchdowns (30)
Irving Fryar, Philadelphia Eagles (1996)
88 catches, 1,195 yards, 11 touchdowns (33)
James Lofton, Buffalo Bills (1991)
57 catches, 1,072 yards, eight touchdowns (35)
Stanley Morgan, New England Patriots (1986)
84 catches, 1,491 yards, 10 touchdowns (31)

Guys like Galloway, Lofton, and Morgan would have been held in high regard in their early days, but at the time of their comebacks, all three had fading numbers. However, the foundation was set for Galloway and Lofton to revive their numbers when they joined offenses that emphasized the pass (Jon Gruden’s West Coast attack and Buffalo’s K-Gun). Morgan’s numbers rose when New England started getting more comfortable throwing the ball after a conservative period. McCardell, Fryar, and McCaffrey are examples of guys who posted their best numbers once the candles on their birthday cake totaled 30. Again, going back to their team situations, those three landed on squads that gave them the opportunity to make lots of plays in the passing game. Muhammad took advantage of an injury situation, as Carolina lost Steve Smith for the season during their opening game of 2004. As for Kennison, he had been regarded as a troublemaker before he landed in Kansas City, but with a quality quarterback in Trent Green and a great offensive system, even a malcontent can get the job done. Overall, don’t shy away from a wide receiver just because he doesn’t have a lot of tread on the tires.

Bottom Line
Now that you know the types of breakout receivers, you can establish scouting patterns. If you could land three to four quality players from any category on the list, you’ve got a good shot at capturing a title. Talent is nice, and very important, but most of it comes down to the foundation and philosophy of a team. Identifying guys in the right situation can make all the difference in the fantasy football world.