Inaugural FantasyFootball.com Roundtable Discussion

02/23/2010 4:00 PM -  Greg Brosh

We have decided to do something new this year and do a weekly Roundtable Discussion involving some of our staff members of the site. Every week, we will toss out a question involving the 2010 fantasy season to give our customers a better glimpse into our thoughts on certain players and who we think will prosper this year and who will fall flat.

Our first question is: You have the No. 1 overall pick in your league draft. Who do you take and why?

Chris Farmer:
I’d have to say Chris Johnson even as tough as it is to duplicate a year like he had.

He is in a good situation in Tennessee where he looks to be heavily utilized as long as he is healthy for the foreseeable future, and he surprised virtually everyone by surpassing AP as the premier running back in the league. He can burn you toting the rock or catching outlet passes.

Vince Young will likely continue to be more a game manager than gunslinger, although I do think he is a better passer than people give him credit for. Still, for the purpose of analyzing CJ’s fantasy value, VY is the perfect QB to have.

Tom Digliani:
It really comes down to three guys for me: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones Drew. Ray Rice is a nice candidate to push those three for top billing, but I simply cannot put him in the top three.

So the next question is “Who is #1 out of those three?

The first thing that jumps out at me is that in terms of TD productivity, MJD appears to be the most stable commodity. While it is close, he has 30 TDs over the past two years compared to 28 for AP and 26 for CJ. Also, MJD seems to score TDs more frequently in terms of touches per TD. All three RBs increased their yards per touch from 2008 to 2009. CJ increased by the most, followed by MJD and then AP.

When you factor in the uncertainty around the Minny QB for next year, the receiving prowess and also the turnover differences (AP has 10 in the last two years compared to 4 for CJ and 3 for MJD), I’d rule out AP first. That leaves my decision down to CJ or MJD. Both are very strong candidates. CJ is more explosive. MJD is the slightly more proven commodity. Both players are 3-down players and are threats in the rushing and passing game. Yards can rise and fall year to year, so the big thing I want in my #1 pick is the consistent ability to score. MJD has averaged a TD every 20.8 touches over the past two years. CJ has averaged a TD every 27.0 touches in that time. The O-line and offensive situations for each team are pretty stable. Tenn was able to re-sign Eugene Amano, which was clutch. It is still “wait and see” on Kevin Mawae, however. Jax has a young and talented O-line that should get better as Britton and Monroe continue to mature and progress in their second years. For me it is really close and hard to call. One thing to monitor is the open assessment that Tennessee will “limit” CJ’s touches next year in order to make sure to not work him as hard as they did this year.

Based on history, ability to produce more efficiently, and the potential risk to the reduction of touches for CJ this coming year, I give the nod to Maurice Jones-Drew with my #1 overall pick. I would have Chris Johnson second and Adrian Peterson third.

Perry Van Hook:
On the clock for 2010 at 1.01 I would take Titans RB Chris Johnson. Johnson took a big step up in 2009 and the Tennessee offense is clearly geared to getting Johnson the ball. Especially in PPR leagues I think “LBJ” is a clear first pick.

Robb Harkey:
If I’m holding the number one pick right now I’m going to go Maurice Jones-Drew. As it stands, there seems to be a consensus top three of MJD, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Johnson.  Though Peterson is certainly going to get plenty of touches, those ball-control issues could cost him some carries at times if it continues.  Also, his receiving numbers are far behind the other two, so ADP finished third.  Once it comes down to MJD and Johnson, I don’t feel you can go wrong either way.  However, I need to make a choice and the one thing that sticks out to me is the TDs each has scored.  This isn’t so much a knock on Johnson as it is a tribute to MJD and his reliability in scoring TDs.  In his worst year he scored nine and in his other three seasons has scored at least 12 TDs.  If I’m making the first pick I want to be as safe as I can while paying attention to upside.  We just saw Johnson’s upside and I figure he’s bound to drop a little bit.  I have no amazing argument with someone taking Johnson over MJD due to the upside he possesses, but for me the first pick is about combining upside and making sure the pick is a safe one as well.  For me it’s MJD but depending on player movement, etc. over the next few months this is certainly not etched in stone.

Craig Davis:
Chris Johnson would be my selection for the #1 fantasy RB in next year’s draft for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, opportunity. When gauging fantasy value out of the RB position, I think we often times forget that opportunity plays a big part in how many chances a certain player is even going to have to score. Though each team in the NFL usually carries three or four RBs, there are certain circumstances in which a player will find himself as a “feature” back more than the rest. Example: Chris Johnson vs. Marion Barber. Barber is a great back, but in the current Dallas scheme, Barber only touches the ball 61% of the time on running plays, and that number could decrease even more this year. Johnson, on the other hand, touches the ball on 85% of the Titans’ running plays, giving him the clear advantage before we even know what both backs are capable of.

The second thing I look at is if there has been any major coaching or player personnel moves in the off-season. So far, the Titans have stayed status quo and it looks as if they will remain that way. Vince Young is slated to be the starting QB, the offensive line is only going to get better, and I have to believe they will add another receiver in the off-season. You’ll notice, from last year’s numbers, that Johnson’s numbers started to spike when Young was named the starting QB. With Young having a full season under his belt and Johnson already proving he can reach 2000 yards, one can only wonder what he’s capable of in 2010.

And third, does he catch passes? Is he involved in the passing game? I think we all know the answer to that is “yes”. He caught 43 passes in 2008 (his rookie year) and upped it to 50 last year. The biggest reason Johnson is on the field on passing downs is because he’s really figured out how to pick up blitzes. Show me a RB who can block and I’ll show you one who is starting on almost every down. Johnson went for 503 receiving yards in 2009 and could easily duplicate that again in 2010 under Mike Heimerdinger’s system.

Other first-pick candidates: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice