IDP Analysis: IDP ADP

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    05/26/2011 8:57 AM - 

    Well, the NFL Draft is a few weeks past us and we still don’t have any clear understanding of what’s happening with the NFL Labor situation (though we do know, nothing will be done before the July 4th Holiday). But, fantasy owners and fanatics are betting that a deal will be struck before too long, as mock drafts are still happening, and we have some early ADP reports to look at. My colleague, Craig Davis, has shed some light on some ADP values for the offensive side of the ball. I’ll be taking a look at some ADP reporting from the defensive side of the ball for IDP leagues. ADP data has been collected from MyFantasyLeague.   Here are some of my thoughts on value as I looked at some of the reporting, early on…

    -Ndamukong Suh is being drafted as the #1 DL (avg pick 78)….he was a force for IDP owners and the Lions last season and racked up 10 sacks in his rookie year. He was a beast on the interior and was an all-around nightmare for opposing offensive linemen. I still don’t think he should be drafted as the #1 DL, especially over proven commodities. Suh will have Fairley on the other side and Kyle Vanden Bosch should be ready to return, as well. Cliff Avril also broke-out and racked up 9 sacks of his own. I don’t doubt that he’ll be a top 10 DL, which is impressive enough for a defensive tackle. A repeat of double digit sacks is quite possible, but certainly not a guarantee. As of now, there are about 5-6 DLs (Trent Cole, Justin Tuck, Jared Allen to name a few) that I like a bit more than Suh, so don’t overpay for 2010 numbers.

    -Lots of value at the DL spot…the DL spot is one of the more inconsistent spots for IDP owners, so, while it’s nice to get the double digit stud, it’s not necessary to overpay for the position. Carlos Dunlap, who I think has the talent to be a top 10, is being drafted just outside the top 15, behind Jason Pierre-Paul (who’s not a starter). Derrick Morgan, who I like as a sleeper, is being drafted just outside the top 30 and, as long as he’s healthy, could produce within the top 20.  As of now, he doesn’t have much competiton for a starting gi. Some DLs still don’t have a team, like Ray Edwards, and their situation could really dictate their ADP the rest of the way. If Edwards is re-signed by the Vikes or lands on a team that ensures that he’s a starter (especially in a 4-3 scheme), he will get a bump in value. There are only a select few defensive tackles I’d draft within the top 20, and Gerald McCoy isn’t one of them. Also make sure to check on guys like Mathias Kiwanuka and Kyle Vanden Bosch to make sure that they don’t suffer any setbacks during the off-season.

    ADP Bargains (DL)
    1. Carlos Dunlap
    2. Matt Shaugnessy
    3. Justin Smith
    4. Cliff Avril
    5. Israel Idonije
    6. Will Smith
    7. Derrick Morgan
    8. Darnell Dockett
    9. John Abraham
    10. Chris Clemons

    -It’s a Linebacker smorgasboard (but keep an eye on the scoring format)…has Jerod Mayo displaced Patrick Willis as the #1 overall linebacker this year? That’s like asking if your favorite episode of Seinfeld is ‘The Contest’ or ‘The Junior Mint’. Everyone is going to have their opinion on which is better. Linebackers are your bread and butter in IDP leagues and it’s the position that typically will score the most, just because of opportunities. One name, however, that stood out to me on the ADP list was Jamar Chaney. He’s currently the 36th linebacker taken and it’s unreal that’s he’s being drafted so late. He lifted me to two title games in two all IDP leagues and he should be targeted as an LB2 (with the upside to produce LB1 numbers). Stewart Bradley can now be given the injury prone label and looks to be shifting to the strong-side. Karlos Dansby and DeAndre Levy are also being undervalued, but also have plenty of potential to be top-end linebackers. Unless you are in big play leagues, where sacks are heavily scored over tackles, I don’t see Clay Matthews being a top 5 LB this season. This is where it’s extremely important to keep an eye on your scoring system. In my tackle heavy league (2pts per solo/1pt per assist; 4pts per sack), Clay Matthews finished, barely, in the top 40. I’ll reiterate….keep an eye on your scoring system. I’ll gladly scoop up backers like Lawrence Timmons, Curtis Lofton or Chad Greenway if someone takes Clay Matthews early. Now, if tackles are worth 1pt and assists are .5pt, yeah Matthews should be considered a top 10 option.

    ADP Bargains (LB)
    1. Lance Briggs
    2. London Fletcher (will age ever catch up to him?)
    3. Jamar Chaney
    4. D’qwell Jackson
    5. Clint Session
    6. David Harris
    7. Rey Maualuga (could have a break-out year at MIKE)
    8. Kevin Burnett
    9. Sean Weatherspoon
    10. Mason Foster

    Plenty of defensive backs in the poolEric Berry is being drafted as the #1 DB according to ADP? Well, with the turnover of the DBs in IDP, I can’t say I can make an argument for him not being the #1 DB. Although, watching both LaRon Landry and TJ Ward, those are two guys that will certainly have something to say about that. Landry was well on his way to being the #1 DB before a season ending injury, and, fantasy owners haven’t forgotten. Lots of corners are now being drafted among the tops of the DBs, as well. As of now, there’s no way I can trust Donte Whitner, especially if he doesn’t return to Buffalo. He had an other-wordly year, but there’s no way he’ll repeat that. I still don’t get why Darrelle Revis gets drafted, unless these are leagues that force you to play a CB position. He just doesn’t get enough throws his way to even warrant a roster spot in most IDP formats. Greg Toler is being drafted as if he’s going to start, but I don’t see it happening with PP and Run-DRC in the fold. There is some great value at the DB position, so don’t be afraid to wait on them this year. Three guys I’ll keeping an eye on; Glover Quin (moved to S for Houston), Morgan Burnett, Quintin Mikell (to see where he lands)…

    ADP Bargains (DB)
    1. Antonie Bethea
    2. OJ Atogwe
    3. Louis Delmas/Amari Spievey
    4. Adrian Wilson
    5. Antoine Winfield
    6. Chris Hope
    7. Danieal Manning
    8. Michael Huff
    9. Nick Collins
    10. Glover Quin

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