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Fantasy Football ToolsThe world of IDP can be a fickle mistress and its landscape changes from year to year. Defensive schemes from college to the pros are definitely something to keep an eye on. But most importantly, opportunity. Will the top LB get a chance to start right away? Is he going from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme? Is that player talented enough to make the transition from college to the pros? As dynasty leagues become increasingly popular, you must follow these rookies and find those players that have the talent, but have also found themselves in the ideal situation so that you can build your defensive corps for years to come. Just because there’s a lockout, it doesn’t mean rookie drafts are being put on hold. Here are my top 30 IDP rookies for the 2011 season…
1. Mason Foster, LB, TBB: As of now Barrett Rudd is slated for free agency and GM Mark Dominik has hinted that he wants Foster starting at MIKE, but he could find himself on the weak-side if the Bucs pluck one of the free agent middle linebackers from free agency. Either way, this kid has talent and finds himself on a youthful Tampa defense that is ready to dominate. He should be one of the first rookie IDPs off the board.
2. Martez Wilson, LB, NOS: Another future middle linebacker has found himself in a great situation. Wilson can play all over the field, so that versatility will help get him on the field for more snaps, which is a great situation for dynasty owners. As of now, he’ll play on the outside of Jonathan Vilma and will help shore up what was a weakness for the Saints; the outside LB spot. Wilson has a mentor in Vilma and could find himself at MIKE sooner than later.
3. Nate Irving, LB, DEN: With Denver moving back to a 4-3 scheme, Irving has a shot at being a starter right away, either at MIKE or WILL (weak-side). As of now, DJ Williams is going to start at MLB, but there’s the possibility that Irving could get the job. Either way, he finds himself in a position to help Denver’s defense and his dynasty owners in 2011.
4. Colin McCarthy, LB, TEN: With Stephen Tulloch’s status with the team up in the air (due to the lockout), McCarthy’s motor could drive him into the starting lineup, especially since Tennessee’s linebacker corps, as a whole, is a bit of a mess. The Titans loved his versatility and ability to play all linebacker positions across the board. And with Gerald McRath and Rennie Curran in tow, Stephen Tulloch doesn’t appear to be part of the plans. McCarthy has a good drive and nose for the ball and should make most of his opportunities in the Music City.
5. Jaiquann Jarrett, S, PHI: He and Nate Allen will be the safety tandem in Philly, as it looks like the Eagles are ready to part ways with Quintin Mikell. Jarrett’s a solid tackler and should fit right into Philly’s aggressive defense scheme. He’ll be a starter at strong safety from the get go, and should be able to produce IDP-viable digits from opening kick-off.
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6. Bruce Carter, LB, DAL: Carter could start 2011 on the PUP, as he tore an ACL later in the college season. It certainly didn’t matter to Dallas, as they saw the athleticism in this kid and his ability to run down the guy with the football. He’s certainly more of an athlete than Sean Lee, but will need to adjust to the scheme and recover from injury. There’s definite upside for his 2nd year of service.
7. Robert Quinn, DE, STL: Spags loves his defensive ends and finds himself with an extremely talented and effective pass-rusher to use in his creative blitz schemes. The Rams benefited from the rest of the league passing on him, just because he didn’t play a down in 2010. He didn’t lose the ability to get to the QB and he will be unleashed as a nice bookend to Chris Long.
8. Quin Sturdivant, LB, ARI: He had some character concerns heading into the draft and that caused teams to give pause on the kid. If he can mature and take his head off the swivel off the field, the Cards might have one of the bigger thefts of the draft. Paris Lenon and oft injured Gerald Hayes stand in his way of a starting gig, so keep an eye on the status of both backers during the offseason. If he does manage to find his way into the lineup, he and Daryl Washington will form a dynamic tandem for multiple years.
9. Cameron Jordan, DE, NOS: The 2nd Saint to appear within my top 30. New Orleans did a nice job of addressing the defense with their picks and Jordan and he’ll be lining up next to Will Smith and Gregg Williams’ blitz heavy scheme. Jordan is also going to shift around the line, making it even harder on opposing offensive lines. He was under-rated coming out of college, but should be able to rack up respectable sack numbers and solid tackle digits, as he’s more than capable of stuffing the run.
10. Kelvin Sheppard, LB, BUF: Andra Davis isn’t getting any younger and is an injury risk, as is Paul Posluszny (but he’s not going anywhere anyway). Sheppard has plenty of experience in a scheme similar to Buffalo’s 3-4 scheme, but might lack that sideline to sideline speed. He’ll give the Bills depth and injuries could force Sheppard into a starting role this season.
11. Lawrence Wilson, LB, CAR: The Panthers burned through linebackers in 2010 quicker than Lindsey Lohan goes through rehab. Jon Beason seems to be the only one that can stay healthy for a long period of time and, with this selection, jobs aren’t safe in Carolina (outside of Beason). Wilson’s size and speed make him a good fit at Carolina’s productive weak-side spot.
12. Ross Homan, LB, MIN: EJ Henderson is in a contract year and Ben Leber will not be back with the squad. Homan has good instincts and football acumen, but may lack some size and speed. Homan finds himself in a very linebacker-friendly defensive scheme, which should allow him to showcase his tackling ability and aggressiveness. He should be starting by year two with the Vikings.
13. Adrian Clayborn, DE, TBB: The Bucs did a great job of upgrading their ends, as Stylez G. White is on his way out and Tim Crowder has proven to be a disappointment. Clayborn will line up alongside Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and should be able to provide a consistent pass-rush that Tampa has lacked for several seasons. He’s got a good first step and can take on the tackles and should return solid value for his IDP owners.
14. Tyler Sash, S, NYG: I’m not too concerned about the situation he landed in here. Kenny Phillips’ knee is only getting worse and Chad Jones was involved in a horrible car accident. Sash is a big hitter and can provide a presence on the football field with his instincts and ability to get to the football. His toughness and football awareness will get him on the field this season.
15. Casey Matthews, LB, PHI: His pedigree alone should help him become a solid NFL linebacker. He seems to have inherited all of the abilities between his tackling and coverage skills. As of now, he’s slated to move to the weak-side, where Jamar Chaney will man the middle and Stewart Bradley will man the strong-side. His size and ability should allow him to produce decent tackle digits and should be an every-down backer in year two.
16. Jabaal Sheard, DE, CLE: Sheard couldn’t have asked for a better situation than to land in Cleveland, where his skills as pass rusher will be utilized right away. Great lower-body strength and is also daft at run-stoppage and will catch the opposing teams off-guard with his speed off the line. He should be a starter from day one, and could provide DE help for those IDP owners that need it.
17. Von Miller, LB, DEN: Here’s a case where I don’t like the situation for a particular player. I certainly don’t fault Denver for taking the talented pass rusher. But for IDP purposes, he would have been best suited in landing on a team as a pass-rushing OLB in a 3-4 scheme. He’ll mainly be used as such in the pass-rush and may not provide much help in coverage or run stopping, which will definitely hurt. Injuries haven’t been kind to Denver recently, so there’s always that to help maintain his value, especially those in big play heavy leagues, that may not reward as many points for tackles/assists.
18. Da’Quan Bowers, DE, TBB: We talk about value in fantasy drafts and the Bucs certainly got that in spades with Bowers. With issues surrounding his knee, this top 5 talent fell to the 2nd round at tremendous value and finishes out, what could be, a dominant front line for years to come. The reward is worth the risk. And if he shows up healthy, his potential is limitless. Don’t reach too high, though.
19. JT Thomas, LB, CHI: The Bears linebacking group is getting up there in age. In addition to that, Hunter Hillenmeyer is gone and Pisa Tinoisamoa’s contract situation is up in the air. With these questions swirling in the Soldier Field air, Thomas could find himself with defensive snaps from the get-go. He does have some long-term potential as the future WLB, but this season he should contribute to special teams and specific packages. With his upside, the Bears could go to him sooner than expected.
20. Quintin Carter, S, DEN: Denver has lacked safety play for quite some time, until the recent addition of Brian Dawkins. He’ll be a great mentor to Carter and there’s hopes that he can help meld this raw talent into a solid strong safety. I like the athleticism here.
21. Shiloh Keo, S, HOU: Keo is a safety that can play the pass, or come up in the box and stop the run. He’s a solid tackler and isn’t afraid to give a hit. Bernard Pollard, as of now anyway, is still the strong safety, but Keo could be the starter from kick-off if Houston doesn’t bring him back. A solid player with a great football mind.
22. Doug Hogue, LB, DET: Detroit filled their need at OLB with the addition of Hogue. Hogue is going to see quite a few defensive snaps early to play behind, what looks like, an imposing defensive line. He is a good character guy and will finish the tackle and make a play on the ball. He should be contributing right away and is someone to target in dynasty drafts.
23. Akeem Dent, LB, ATL: Stephen Nicholas’ contract situation is what puts him on this list. Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon have the other spots locked up at this point. He’ll have to improve his abilities in coverage to be considered an every-down backer.
24. Mark Legree, S, SEA: Legree and Kam Chancellor will compete for the starting gig opposite Earl Thomas. I think Legree, when all is said and done, will be the starter because of his knack for getting to the ball and finishing plays. That nose for the ball will help him cause turnovers and he’s a sound tackler. He should be the every-down safety in his 2nd year and should put up IDP-friendly tackle digits.
25. DJ Smith, LB, GBP: He’s an intriguing talent. He put up gaudy numbers at App State and makes the fundamentally sound tackle. I can see him, at some point, lining up alongside Desmond Bishop and will also help make the plays in pass coverage. He couldn’t have asked for a better situation to be in. I know AJ Hawk is still around, but not for long IMO.
26. Greg Jones, LB, NYG: Jones was drafted in hopes of being their MIKE backer as they’ve had trouble with the position since the retirement of Antonio Pierce. There’s a learning curve here and he’ll need to learn how to pass cover and put forth the work to be an every-down backer.
27. Brooks Reed, LB, HOU: Reed has potential in big-play leagues as a hybrid pass rusher. He brings tons of energy to the table and will, hopefully, be a major contributor to Wade Phillips’ 3-4 scheme. He’ll need to develop coverage skills in order to be an every-down player, but there’s upside here in bigger play leagues.
28. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, WAS: Kerrigan will be making the transition from DE to OLB. But with his intensity and past production in the Big Ten, there’s a lot to like here. The transition might hurt his IDP value, but he’ll make his mark in IDP leagues that reward the bigger plays more than tackles. Playing opposite Brian Orakpo, he has a chance to make his mark in Jim Haslett’s defense.
29. Sam Acho, LB, ARI: Acho looks like a great fit for Arizona. And with his intelligence, could make his mark right away. Arizona has no real options at the outside, so he has upside to lead the Cards in sacks from the get go. Joey Porter and Clark Haggans look to be headed out of the desert and is O’Brien Schofield (not to be confused with O’Brien the Nazi sympathizer from Seinfeld) really the answer? Situation could dictate Acho getting ample defensive snaps.
30. Jonas Mouton, LB, SDC: He could be on the fast track to a starting gig as the ILB spots remain muddled with the free agent situations of Kevin Burnett and Brandon Siler. Donald Butler is coming off a torn Achilles, but he looks to be in the mix. If the Chargers bring back just one of Burnett or Siler, playing time might be sparse for Mouton, so keep an eye out.
The next 20
31. Justin Houston, OLB, KCC
32. Rahim Moore, S, DEN
33. Robert Sands, S, CIN
34. Aldon Smith, OLB, SFO
35. Greg Romeus, DE, NOS
36. Chris Conte, S, CHI
37. KJ Wright, LB, SEA
38. Akeem Ayers, LB, TEN
39. Ahmad Black, S, TBB
40. JJ Watt, DE, HOU
41. Muhammed Wilkerson, DE, NYJ
42. Jimmy Smith, CB, BAL
43. Brandon Harris, CB, HOU
44. Patrick Peterson, CB, ARI
45. Prince Amakamura, CB, NYG
46. Cliff Matthews, DE, ATL
47. Jermale Hines, S, STL
48. Aaron Williams, CB, BUF
49. Dontay Moch, LB, CIN
50. Marcell Dareus, DE, BUF
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Thanks for reading as always. For questions or comments, feel free to e-mail me at mike@fantasyfootball.com. Follow me on Twitter @MentalAcumen
Trying to get the offense rankings, but only the IDP rankings appear
Greg,
I updated the link so it’ll take you to the proper section…
Thanks Greg
Mike