Pre-Season Mailbag Questions: Round 1

07/08/2011 3:51 PM -  Craig Davis

Over the course of the next few months, FantasyFootball.com is going to be answering a select few email questions each week and present them to you in “article format”. I received over 20 questions this week, and although I wish I could answer all 20 of them here, I selected just a few that I thought would make for good reading and might help more than just a few members.

If you’re an Ultimate Dominance Member and you have a fantasy football question, please email craig@fantasyfootball.com and I’ll get back with you as quickly as I can. Remember, Ultimate Dominance Members are privy to our Live Advice product, where you can receive instant answers to your fantasy questions without having to wait for an email reply.

QUESTION 1 — Do you think we’ll have NFL football this year?

ANSWER — Yes, I do. I’m just worried we might have to wait longer than expected. The season might be shortened, but we’ll eventually get this thing rolling.

QUESTION 2 — Two years ago Ray Rice burst onto the scene and finished in the top 10. Last year it was Arian Foster. Which RB do you think could be this year’s version of Ray Rice of two years ago and Arian Foster last year?

ANSWER — I can’t pick just one, but I do see three guys who could potentially finish in the top 10. Remember, on average, less than 50% of the top 10 RBs from the previous year end up in the top 10 the following season. So that likely means we’ll see 5-7 new faces in the top 10 at the conclusion of the 2011 season. So if you’re one of those guys who drafts your team based solely on last year’s stats, I want to invite you to play in my leagues.

I get paid to research, study, and project the stats of hundreds of players based on a number of factors. I’m happy to say the numbers have been crunched and I’ve found a few guys that you need to keep in the back of your mind when drafting in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina — Yes, I realize Stewart was a trainwreck in 2010. He, along with DeAngelo Williams, cost many fantasy owners a lot of money as both of them performed WELL BELOW projected expectations. In his first two seasons in the league, Stewart scored 20 TDs (10 each season) and averaged nearly 1,000 yards rushing. Injuries, a banged-up offensive line, and ZERO quarterback play caused Stewart to be a major bust as he finished with just two TDs and 770 yards rushing. With DeAngelo Williams expected to be gone, Stewart becomes “the man” in the Carolina backfield. Granted, Mike Goodson will probably see a lot of action on third downs, but Stewart has the chance of being a huge sleeper if the chips fall correctly.

Knowshon Moreno, Denver — Remember last year when Moreno was being drafted late in the second round and I wrote a big piece on why he was to be avoided? It paid off, didn’t it? But for all the reasons I didn’t like Moreno last year… I actually think it’s worth taking a chance on him in 2011. His ADP for this year is already down a few rounds, and I honestly believe you’ll be able to get him in the 4th round or later. Considering he was going late-first/early-second round last year, that’s a big jump. Yes, I realize he’s injury prone. I get that. That’s one of the main reasons I told people it was ludicrous to take him so early last season. But considering you can get a workhorse RB in the 4th round who will clearly be the starter, not to mention a new head coach who LOVES to run the ball, I would definitely take my chances on this guy… despite the fact we know he’s going to miss some time.

Felix Jones, Dallas — I know, I know… a homer pick, right? Well, not exactly. Most of you who know me understand that I’m very realistic when it comes to the Cowboys, and I don’t usually tout many of these guys unless they deserve it. And I believe the chance for Felix Jones to “break out” is this year. Marion Barber is on his way out and Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray are likely going to battle for the third-down job, so that leaves things up to Jones to get the job done. Jones is a complete back in a good offense that will also provide fantasy points in the passing game. I realize it’s a crowded backfield, but the job is Jones’s to lose and I don’t think he’s going to lose it. In fact, I think he’s going to flourish and could finish in the top 10.

QUESTION 3 — I’m looking at this year’s running back ADP data and I’m wondering which of the top 10 guys has the best chance to fall outside the top 10?

ANSWER — Another tough question, and I’m not sure there’s a great answer. Some have said Darren McFadden is a one-year wonder in the top 10, and they may be correct, but I’m going in a different direction. I have very little faith in Frank Gore, and anyone who’s drafted with me over the years knows I just don’t draft the guy. He continually goes in the first round, yet injuries always seem to bite him (and his fantasy owners) in the butt. The Niners drafted Kendall Hunter for a reason… they could smell the declining years of Frank Gore coming… if they aren’t already here. With Anthony Dixon being used mainly in short-yardage situations, Hunter was drafted to do what Frank Gore does when Gore can’t play (or he’s not effective).

QUESTION 4 — I’m in a deep dynasty league, and I’ve been hanging on to Matthew Stafford for the last two years hoping he would pan out into something special. Hasn’t happened. Should I cut my losses now and go in another direction or ride out the storm?

ANSWER — Personally, I love Stafford. I believe he’s primed for a HUGE season in 2011. They now have an improved offensive line, two legitimate RB threats, an up-and-coming TE, and Calvin Johnson. This offense is loaded and if Stafford is as good as advertised, he should post 3500+ yards and at least 22-24 TDs. In my opinion, he’s just got to figure out how to stay healthy and keep that shoulder on the “up and up” if he wants to be considered an elite QB candidate. I think, because of his ADP, Stafford has the capability of being a high-value, low-risk target. In your case, I’d hang onto him for sure, in hopes that shoulder stays healthy and he can post solid numbers.