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*** PLEASE NOTE: THESE PLAYERS (LISTED BELOW) ARE RECOMMENDED FOR DEEPER LEAGUES ONLY)***
We’ve all played out the “third-year WR theory”. You know… the one that says wide receivers tend to have their breakout season (if they’re going to have one) in their third year in the league. But to assume that every receiver entering his third season is going to “break out” is immature and uninformed.
There is, however, a good reason to look at young receivers (both second- and third-year receivers) because history has proven that several of these youngsters do actually post solid fantasy numbers and are worthy of a roster spot. We obviously know who the legit second- and third-year receivers are… but what about those “tweeners”… those guys who might be worth a roster spot in deeper leagues? The hardest part is figuring out which ones are worth taking a chance on.
That’s my job.
After hours of extensive research, I’ve narrowed my list down to a select few who really have the potential to be one of those late-round “steals” that could wind up being a weekly starter for your fantasy football team.
THIRD-YEAR RECEIVERS
Louis Murphy, Oakland — Murphy is getting absolutely no love in early fantasy football drafts, barely being drafted in 10% of leagues we tracked. Yet guys like Jacoby Ford, Demaryius Thomas, Mohammed Massoquoi, Golden Tate, and even Dexter McCluster are being drafted well ahead of him. Though his TD total did diminish from his rookie season (4 to 2), his yardage and total receptions went up, telling me QB Jason Campbell is starting to gain more faith in him. Remember, Murphy’s four TD receptions in 2009 weren’t from Campbell, so it’s taken some time for these two to get on the same page. With 86 targets a year ago, including 14 in the red zone, Murphy is primed for a chance to have a solid third season. Though small, Murphy provides some quiet value if you can snatch him up in the latter rounds.
Deon Butler, Seattle — The biggest question for Butler won’t necessarily be about numbers but more about how well he’s recovered from a nasty broken leg in Week 14 of the 2010 season. Obviously Mike Williams is considered the “go to” receiver for this team, but even having said that there’s room for someone to step up and be the downfield playmaker. Butler will battle Ben Obomanu and Golden Tate for playing time, and although Obomanu appears to be the favorite coming into camp, Butler’s speed continues to turn heads. True, Butler is under-sized, but he has blazing speed and occasionally showed the ability to make big catches. Granted, he had only 36 receptions last season, but four of those went for TDs in limited action, telling me Matt Hasselbeck has faith in this guy in the red zone. There’s a ton of room for improvement, and as long as Butler is fully recovered from that broken leg, he has the chance to provide some value for owners willing to take a chance on him late.
Brandon Tate, New England — Tate was limited by a knee injury in 2009 as a rookie, but was expected to crack the starting lineup in 2010 when healthy. Didn’t really happen. Instead of being a “deep ball” team, the Pats settled for short crossing routes to Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and their tight ends. Tate wasn’t much of a factor, but his 18 YPC average is eye-opening. With three TDs (two of those over 40 yards), the sky’s the limit for Tate in this offense. Although he won’t post WR1 numbers, Tate’s explosiveness makes him dangerous and someone worth drafting at the end, just in case.
Brian Robiskie/Mohammed Massoquoi, Cleveland — With Greg Little being drafted, it’s pretty obvious that one of these two (Massaquoi/Robiskie) is going to get less playing time than they did a year ago. Robiskie was drafted a little earlier than Massaquoi, but Massaquoi has been a better pro to date. I believe he’s slightly faster and has run better routes than Robiskie, but both have the potential to step up this year and make a name for themselves. After a 41-yard TD reception in Week 1, Massaquoi did virtually nothing the rest of the year. Robiskie barely averaged 4 fantasy points per game, but we know he has more in him… especially as a possession receiver and a big target in the red zone. Still, Colt McCoy seemed more comfortable with guys like Peyton Hillis, Ben Watson and even Chansi Stuckey last season. In this new West Coast offense, Massaquoi could actually surprise some people. If I were drafting today, I’d rank Massaquoi ahead of Robiskie and would definitely take a chance on him in round 16 or 17.
SECOND-YEAR RECEIVERS
Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh — The biggest problem with Sanders is that too many people know about him. As much as I’d like to think he’s going to slip into the latter rounds, I just don’t believe most drafters are going to wait that long. His ADP currently sits at 143 (55th overall receiver) and it continues to move up. Part of the reason owners are liking Sanders more and more is the age of guys like Hines Ward and even TE Heath Miller. He developed a solid rapport with QB Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2010 season, and especially the playoffs,… and that’s quite a feat considering he didn’t get to work with his QB up through the first four weeks of the season. Sanders finished with only 28 receptions and two TDs during the regular season, but much of his damage was done in the final quarter of the season. Mike Wallace is obviously the top option in the receiving corps, but a solid training camp and a quick start to the season could catapult him into a very good season. Definitely worth the risk of drafting late, though I don’t believe you’re going to get him if you wait too long.
David Gettis, Carolina — Yes, I realize the Carolina QB situation is among one of the worst in the league, but I also saw some nice things from Gettis last season and I have a lot more faith in Cam Newton than many of my peers. Gettis was thrust into the starting lineup at times last year with Steve Smith’s injuries, and because of his size (6’3″) and physical play, he was able to post respectable numbers (37-508-3) on just 66 targets. Though his reception percentage was a bit low, you have to consider Jimmy Clausen and Brian St. Pierre were the ones throwing him the ball. For his size, Gettis has deceptively quick feet and is able to get behind the defense. Don’t expect him to be anything close to a WR1, but if Steve Smith leaves via free agency, Gettis could be the #1 in Carolina and should be able to post somewhat solid numbers.
Arrelious Benn, Tampa Bay — Benn was not only drafted higher than Mike Williams last April, he also received higher “praise” from the media talking heads and was drafted a good three rounds higher than Williams in deep fantasy football leagues. Yet Williams finished the season with 245 fantasy points (in a PPR league)… good for 13th overall. Benn, however, was injured part of the year and became a third or fourth fiddle behind Williams, Kellen Winslow and even Caddy Williams, at times. He caught a mere 25 passes for 395 yards and two TDs in 2010… a major disappointment in fantasy circles. But Benn showed signs of life in a few games down the stretch, including a four-catch, 122-yard performance against a decent Washington secondary. Benn is adamant he comes back stronger than before and is doing everything in his power to make sure he’s fully healthy by training camp. He’s even asked QB Josh Freeman to come back early so he and his third-year QB can work on routes and timing. Benn averaged 16 yards per catch last season… and when his targets and reception total increases, his yardage is obviously going to rise as well.
Jordan Shipley, Cincinnati — It amazes me that this guy isn’t even being drafted in deeper leagues right now. I guess it could be a number of things… new QB, the questions surrounding Owens and Ochocinco, and the lack of a solid running game. Whatever it is, it’s hard to ignore a rookie season that included 52 catches for 600 yards and three TDs. Shipley didn’t get a lot of attention as a fantasy rookie in 2010, but when Antonio Bryant went down with injury, Shipley got his chance. And considering all the weapons Carson Palmer had at his disposal, it’s even more impressive that Shipley was able to post those type of numbers. Palmer is likely gone, but the fact the Bengals will likely turn to rookie Andy Dalton might actually help Shipley even more. Young QBs don’t like to go deep often, and Shipley loves to catch balls around the line of scrimmage. Plus, there’s speculation that Owens and Ochocinco might not even return… opening the door even more. If you can get Shipley somewhere between the 13th and 14th round, I believe it’s a steal.
———————————-> Stay tuned… in our next report we’ll look at second- and third-year tight ends.