Pre-Season Mailbag Questions: Round 4

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    08/24/2011 3:17 AM - 

    Over the course of the next few months, is going to be answering a select few email questions each week and present them to you in “article format”. I received over 20 questions this week, and although I wish I could answer all 20 of them here, I selected just ONE that I thought would make for good reading and might help more than just a few members.

    If you’re an Ultimate Dominance Member and you have a fantasy football question, please email and I’ll get back with you as quickly as I can. Remember, Ultimate Dominance Members are privy to our Live Advice product, where you can receive instant answers to your fantasy questions without having to wait for an email reply.

    (Upon receiving the email, we will check your email address against our database to ensure you are an Ultimate Dominance Member).

    QUESTION 1 — I have the 12th pick in a 12 team non ppr league. I have the 12th pick because I won last year thanks to your advice. I wanted to get some advice on what my strategy should be through the first four rounds. My first inclination would be to get the best RB available and an elite QB (Rodgers or Vick). Also, if you can let me know any potential sleepers i should look out for in the later rounds. Thanks.

    - Darren M.

    ANSWER — If you are a total dominance member, you can use the Draft Planner and Draft Predictor to get a perfect, customized cheat sheet for your league. You enter your league’s scoring and roster size and total number of teams. Within 10 seconds you will have a cheat sheet that is perfectly customized to your league. That’s what you need to follow first.

    I can only give you advice based on my years of experience, but I have no idea what your scoring is and I have no idea what the other 11 owners are going to do. I do know I’ve done 7 drafts so far, and the #12 pick in ALL 7 drafts has been different. I’ve seen the following players go there:

    Aaron Rodgers
    Michael Vick
    Steven Jackson
    Frank Gore
    Roddy White
    Larry Fitzgerald
    Calvin Johnson

    Two QBs, two RBs and three WRs. So you can see, there’s no perfect answer to your question.

    If a lot of RBs go early, you need to focus on a WR or possibly a top end QB. If a healthy mix of running backs and wide receivers go, then it’s up to what your cheat sheet tells you for your league. Does Rashard Mendenhall or Hakeem Nicks have more value? Your cheat sheet will tell you that info.

    I’m sorry if this isn’t the answer you were looking for, but without more info, it’s very difficult.

    As for sleepers in later rounds, I believe there are a ton. I don’t consider anyone a sleeper until after the 10th round, so keep that in mind.

    I like these possible sleepers in standard PPR leagues:

    Colt McCoy
    Jerome Harrison
    DeMarco Murray (if he gets healthy)
    Roy Helu
    Denarius Moore
    Mike Sims-Walker
    Kevin Boss

    Hope that helps.


    QUESTION 2 — Hey Guys, got some late round picks in a Dynasty league and wanted to get your thoughts of which of these players has the most upside to take a chance on.  Here are some names that are available and I have 2 picks coming up.

    Julius Thomas TE Denver
    Jordan Todman RB Chargers
    Donald Jones WR Buffalo
    Edmund Gates WR Miami

    Also, another name that intrigues me is Josh Cribbs.  He is a free agent and can be drafted.  In pre-season it seems like they are trying to get him involved.  I’m wondering with the new change to the kick-off rules where he may not be getting as many touches on return yardage that they may try to get him more involved offensively?

    I am pretty deep at WR right now with my roster being – A Johnson, H Nicks, B Lloyd, S Moss, D Mason, J Hill, J Shipley, M Clayton, Brandon Tate, and J Gaffney so that may make it harder to take either of the two WR’s if you don’t think that their upside is any better than what I have currently.

    Also, I will have 28 people on my roster after these two picks so I will need to drop 3 people before season starts to get down to a roster of 25 so will most likely drop a couple of these WR’s since I am deepest here.


    - Barry S.

    ANSWER — Wow, you are stacked at WR. I wasn’t expecting that list when you mentioned you might be interested in a WR in your dynasty draft. I honestly don’t think you can have enough WRs, unless you are really weak and shallow at another position.

    Remember, your WRs aren’t exactly all young. Granted, you do have a nice young corps with Nicks and Johnson (although he’s really not even that young), but after that the average age of your remaining WRs is like 33. It’s probably time to start looking at rookie WRs to keep building for the future.

    Of the players you mentioned, I like Donald Jones and Jordan Todman the best. Jones has a chance to be a fairly solid player this year for the Bills as it looks like he might win the #2 job behind Steve Johnson.

    Todman, on the other hand, is likely a few years away from making a difference. He has to battle with Tolbert and Mathews for starting time this year, and I just don’t see him having a lot of success until one of the others is moved.

    Josh Cribbs is a different beast. I believe the new kickoff rule will affect his status as WR (meaning he will likely get more time), but I still don’t believe his fantasy numbers will be that great. Cleveland will probably use him in the Wildcat, where he will get most of his yardage and do most of his damage.


    QUESTION 3 — Great Site!  I have the 9th pick in my upcoming draft and am wondering, assuming the top 6 running backs are gone what should my first 3 picks be?  RB, RB, WR or WR, WR, RB or should I take a stab at a top QB in that rotation?



    ANSWER — I’ll tell you the same thing I tell everyone… you gotta use Draft Planner (at the very least) and Draft Predictor. The key to drafting is value, and the only way to figure that out is via your customized cheat sheets (draft planner). Are you a Total Dominance member? If so, I urge you to load your scoring into the blanks and you’re on your way. If not, you need to become a member before your draft… period.

    I don’t believe you can go RB, RB, and WR or WR, RB, WR or any of those combos without knowing what has happened in the first eight picks. Your league could be so crazy that five QBs are off the board by the time you draft at #9. Then what? Well, you’d probably get a top flight RB. See my point?

    Use the Draft Planner and you will thank me later.


    QUESTION 4 — In a 12 team league and I have Hakeem Nicks, Nate Burleson, Julio Jones, Johnny Knox and Michael Crabtree as my WR draft picks.

    There are a few free agents I’m thinking about changing to……Terell Owens, Davone Bess, Derick Mason, Mike Williams (Seattle), Malcom Floyd, Brian Harline and/or Brandon Gibson.

    Whom would you keep/Waiver (other than the players in bold).  I can keep 5 WR’s.

    Thanks in advance for the advice.


    ANSWER — You have to keep Nicks, Burleson and Jones for sure. I also think Knox is going to have a good season depending on his health and how much Roy Williams is actually used. But I have absolutely no faith in Crabtree. None. He’s either hurt or complaining or both and I want no part of him.

    If this was a PPR league, I’d consider Bess. In a non-PPR league I could see Floyd or Hartline finish ahead of Crabtree. I believe Crabby has more talent and upside than the other two receivers. If it were me, I’d either stand pat or I’d move Crabtree for Bess or Floyd.

    Hope that helps.

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