Staff Roundtable

Craig Davis: I’m not sure there is a player in fantasy football that I would “avoid at all costs” because most starters and backups are going to get some numbers. The question should have been worded, “which player would you avoid at all costs according to his ADP (average draft position). I wrote an article last week, explaining the reasons I wouldn’t draft Knowshon Moreno, but please keep in mind, if he were available in the 8th round, I’d be a fool not to draft him. But for purposes of this report, I’m going to stick with Moreno. His ADP is simply too high, as we’ve seen him going at the end of third round of most drafts. As I stated in my article, he’s got one year under his belt and the best thing he’s proven is the fact he has lingering knee and ankle problems. Sorry, I’ll pass.

Mike Woellert: Sure, we could discuss the Redskins running backs all day, but, I am absolutely staying away from Ryan Mathews in re-draft leagues. He’s going in the early second round and, in some cases, the 1st round. There is absolutely no way I am trusting a rookie as my RB1, especially with the state of the receiver situation in San Diego. There could be much more focus on the run by defenses and Mathews still needs to learn how to catch out of the backfield. The Chargers still have Darren Sproles hanging around and I’m sure he’s going to get his touches. So, Ryan Mathews is a no go for me. His price is just way too high. Steve Smith of the Giants is also someone I’m not spending a high pick on. Eli and the Giants could return to the run more, and while Smith will be his main target, there’s no way he matches his 2009 totals. There’s a dip in numbers coming and the philosophy in New York could be changing too.

Scott “Cockroach” Pineau: The two easy picks here would be Vincent Jackson and Sidney Rice (for obvious reasons) except in dynasty leagues. But the more I think about players that will actually play come week one the more I think that I would avoid any of the Patriots’ running backs. I just see New England going nowhere fast and not very far in the running game. The Pats have mastered the art of stockpiling has-beens and underachievers at the RB position. Fred Talyor, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris; why are they still playing? I think we all know what the ceiling is on Laurence Maroney (careful not to hit your head). If BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the next best thing they have to offer??? I’ll look elsewhere, thank you very much.

2. The big question on everyone’s minds is the status of unsigned restricted free agent WR Vincent Jackson. There appears to be no chance that he ends up playing for the team after his three-game suspension. We have heard everything from him missing the first ten games, to completely missing the season. For redraft owners; is it even worth taking a late-round flyer on Jackson in the hopes that he plays this year? For dynasty owners; where does Jackson play past this year? Are his bridges completely burned in San Diego?

Craig Davis: I’ll answer the last question first because it’s the easiest. No, bridges aren’t burnt. Why would they be? This crap happens more than my wife cries when she watches The Notebook. If things can get worked out, they will. If not, they won’t. It’s pretty simple. As far as taking a flier on Jackson, heck yeah I would… especially deeper drafts. If I’m sitting in the 18th round and I already have 5 WRs, it would be insane not to at least roster him. Jackson has WR1 talent, and being able to draft him in the 18th round of a 20-round draft just makes sense. He might not play a snap in 2010 but, in reality, what have you really lost by drafting him? As for playing beyond this year, it’s too early to say. As far as I’m concerned, he’s still a Charger until someone else signs him. No matter where he goes, he’s still young enough to be a talented WR on any roster.

Mike Woellert: I’ll let someone else take a flier on Jackson this year. If he does go to a new team, there’s a learning curve with a new offense and then he needs to establish chemistry with a whole new quarterback and that just doesn’t happen overnight. If I am a dynasty owner, I am hoping he ends up on a team with a decent QB so that they can have the offseason to work with each other and get a rapport going. At this point, if Jackson is there in the last round, I’d rather take my chances on a high upside like Harry Douglas.

Scott “Cockroach” Pineau: I don’t see how the bridges can be rebuilt to San Diego. Is there another team that might be interested? Sure. I would love to see the Vikes pick him up to give Favre some help, with Rice out. Or the Rams for that matter. But I’m not sure where he’ll go. So for me, no matter what, I’m NOT drafting him except as a late round flyer; I have bigger fish to fry! As far as his value in dynasty leagues…yes. In an auction I would let someone else nominate him (hopefully later, when many owners have spent most of their money, and get him cheap), and in a standard live draft I would wait until I’m drafting my bench, if he falls that far.

3. The Texans have been raving about Arian Foster, who has held the No. 1 running back spot throughout the preseason and in training camp. He was good, but not great, in 2009 and we all know what Gary Kubiak did to his backfield last year (Sorry Craig). If Foster ends up starting Week One, what can we expect from him. Will he even be able to hold the job all year? Or will Steve Slaton or (shudders) Chris Henry be the starter by midseason?

Craig Davis: If the season were to start today, Foster would be the starter and Slaton would be used primarily on passing downs and occasionally in the slot. I personally still believe Slaton is more talented, but his fumbling problems from a year ago will cause him to stay down on the depth chart. In PPR leagues, these two are going to be very similar in fantasy value. In non-PPR leagues, Foster is probably the logical selection.

Mike Woellert: Arian did a good job of holding onto the job last season and I see him holding on to the job for the majority of 2010. Slaton has been worked out as a kick returner, so I don’t think he sniffs competition for th starter job if he’s moving to special teams, not with his neck issues. If you draft Arian Foster, you’ve got to try and handcuff him with Slaton. Foster’s the starter until further notice…which could be next week.

Scott “Cockroach” Pineau: I think we can expect good – perhaps even very good – but not great things from Foster. He will hold the job as long as he holds the ball, and plays well. I can see him getting between 900 and 1,000 yards on the ground, maybe 40 receptions for 400 through the air. I can’t see Henry doing much, but Slaton might be given another chance if Foster lays an egg.

4. We have seen a lot of owners, through questions/comments, draft a quarterback in the first round if the scoring is 1pt/25 yards passing and 6pts/touchdown. Even in a touchdown heavy league, going with a quarterback with your first-overall pick seems to be a bit of a reach and risky, especially with this year’s quarterback crop a bit deeper than usual. In a 12-team non-ppr league, could you ever see yourself taking a quarterback first?

Craig Davis: Ever since I began this venture with FantasyFootball.com 11 years ago, I’ve preached about how risky it is to take a QB in the first round. Only twice in my entire fantasy playing career have I taken a QB in the first round (Daunte Culpepper, 2002 and Steve Young, 1998), and even then I had my reservations. As good as Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees appear to be, there’s still Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and a few others who will be just as good and won’t justify a selection in the first round. As my articles on Real Value have stated for years, there’s just not a big enough drop off from the top-ranked QB to the 12-rated QB (in 12-team leagues) as opposed to the drop off you’ll see at RB and WR. No reason to take a QB any sooner than the second round (in standard, PPR leagues).

Mike Woellert: Absolutely not. Brady went first overall in some leagues the year after his record breaking season and, well, we all know what happened there. I usually will not touch a QB until the 5th or 6th round at the earliest. Maybe I’m stubborn but I’ve had good luck waiting for QBs in the past, so I’m a go with what works kind of a guy. Now, if I’m in the 4th round and I like my core guys, if someone like Romo is available, I might go with it and that’s even out of the norm for me. If you just look at ADP, there’s tremendous value at the position this year. One of the guys I love this year, is Carson Palmer and I’ve got him ranked 7th (and I think that was before the TO signing). Palmer is a QB that doesn’t take crap from anyone and he’ll be the one to keep everyone in check…not Marvin Lewis.

Scott “Cockroach” Pineau: Never. If I was that concerned on getting a top QB within my few first picks I could easily get a QB 1 in Shaub or Romo in the third, or probably even the fourth round. And I am confident that I would still have a top 10, maybe even top 5 QB in either of them. Don’t sleep on Romo just because of preseason. He will be fine. People were scared of him last season because the Cowboys released T.O. and he had a pro-bowl year. I’d still take Shaub over Romo but either is a very good pick, so wait for them and go get a couple of top players at other positions with your first two picks.

5. It seems wherever OC Mike Martz goes, there is always a buzz in the air regarding the offense. For the first time in awhile, Martz actually has a talented quarterback to work with in Jay Cutler. Now I won’t ask about Cutler since that has been talked about to death. But what about the receiving unit? It looks like Johnny Knox is going to be the team’s No. 1, but we haven’t really seen anything from him. Can he be the Torry Holt of the offense? Or are owners overvaluing him? What about Devin Hester and former super-sleeper Devin Aromashodu? All three receivers have been ranked in our rankings at one point. Could any of the three possibly break through the “flex-spot” barrier?

Craig Davis: The more I see from Devin Aromashadu, the more I like him. He’s fast, has great hands, seems to have a solid rapport with Cutler, and can play all three receiver positions. If Devin Hester were 100% healthy it would throw a bit of a wrench into the equation, but even then he’s more of a deep threat than a possession receiver. The greatest thing about Aromashadu is his versatility. Not only can he play any of the receiver positions, he can also catch the tough third down pass while beating the secondary long for a big gainer. As I adjust my projections in the next few days, Aromashadu will likely rise into the #1 spot with the Bears, Knox will slip to #2 and Hester, who is better off being a slot receiver anyhow, will be #3.

Mike Woellert: I think all of the Bears wide receivers are being extremely over-valued and hyped just because a coordinator has come into town. If there is one WR I’d take a flier on, it’s Johnny “Don’t call me Knoxville” Knox. Earl Bennett was a WR that was really talked about and dubbed a sleeper and the whole offense seemed to flop. We’ll have to see what the offense does in the preseason to really get a sense of what this offense can accomplish.