Things to Watch for the 2010 Fantasy Football Season, Part One

01/24/2010 9:26 PM -  Lane Rizzardini

As previously documented, I am still not over the end of the fantasy football season. I found my sub-conscious Ray Rice fantasy point counter has not turned off yet, though it might just have accidentally been flipped on by the first play from scrimmage during the Raven’s wild card game when they apparently ended the “Patriot Era” according to the ESPN overlords. It was worth 14 points.

It’s clear to me now that I will never get over this cold turkey. I need a patch, or some gum, or maybe some pretend fantasy football. Is that an oxymoron or just redundant? So here’s the first part of a list of things to watch this offseason that will affect your 2010 draft. Hopefully keeping tabs on these important issues will help stave off the cravings till training camps start.

Apologies in advance for spelling errors. The shakes have yet to subside.

Backups Ready to Make an Impact

Could be referred to as the Jamaal Charles award (formerly the Michael Turner award) in honor of the most recent former backup to make it big, these are players who could come out of the starter’s shadow and become top notch fantasy plays.

Jonathan Stewart – I’ll admit, I’ve been wary of J-Stew. The presence of Williams always makes Stewart’s numbers unpredictable, as the former Duck had two more sub-40 yard games than 100+ yard games this season. How can a guy playing behind Deangelo Williams possibly get enough touches to be a reliable fantasy back? Stewart answered that question by running for over 1100 yards and ten touchdowns, exceeding Williams in both categories. The important part to notice is what Stewart was able to do with a full load when Williams sat out the end of the season. In three games J-Stew rushed for 440 yards and four touchdowns, averaging a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry. This man needs a starting job. He’s at least a top 15, if not top 10 back if he gets one.

Justin Forsett – You’d think a young, talented runner like Forsett would be getting more carries playing under a 30 year old, declining Julius Jones than Stewart would under Williams, but not so. If fact, excluding his 17 and 22 carry games, Forsett only averaged 3.6 attempts per game in the first 14. This is a tragedy that hopefully factored into Jim Mora Jr.’s firing, especially when you consider such gems as his 123 yard and a TD performance week 10, averaging 7.2 yards per carry, along with an salivating 8 receptions for 80 yards and TD week 11 against Minnesota, showing his value in PPR leagues. it was encouraging to see him get 24 carries his last couple games and he delivered, posting 6 yards a carry. He has a good chance to emerge, with Jones likely to be a cap casualty. However make sure to watch on draft day, as the Seahawks have been projected by some to take C.J. Spiller. That scream you hear is the thousands of fantasy owners agonizing over the possible negation of  two of their late round steal’s values.

Felix Jones – Felix the Cat has been largely unreliable in Dallas’s three-headed monster, averaging only roughly 6 carries per game despite his explosiveness and ability to bust out for major runs. His tendency to get hurt is also a liability that keeps him from being a trustworthy fantasy back. But as Marion Barber faded down the stretch Jones stepped in and showed what he can do, averaging just under 6 yards per carry in his last six games, including the playoffs. Oh, and managed to stay healthy the entire time! Promising results, now its up to Wade Phillips to give him the ball.

Shonn Greene – Greene had an up and down regular season, posting 144 yards and two TDs week 7 but lost a lot of carries due to a fumbling problem. However his post season has been something to behold. Greene is averaging 130 yards a game while putting it in the end zone twice. He’s been getting 22 carries a game, many more than he did all season, which could indicate he’s starting to move into the feature back roll over the ageless wonder Thomas Jones. I don’t know if he’s quite done that just yet; its tough to supplant a back coming off a 1400 yard, 15 touchdown season no matter how old he is, but Greene does seem to be the heir-apparent to take over the run-heavy Jets offense when Thomas Jones finally feels his age. Jones can’t possibly repeat what he did this year, but that still might be good enough to keep his job the whole season. We might see Greene on this list again next year, but his progress on the depth chart will be interesting to watch.

Jamaal Charles’ ADP

While I refer to him as the Master Chief, the more descriptive nickname commonly used for this mid-season breakout is Chris Johnson Lite. After Larry Johnson was cut for lack of a functioning brain to Twitter filter and Charles was handed the keys to the Pontiac Aztec of NFL running games, Charles went off, totaling 968 yards and nine touchdowns in the final eight games, including a  two touchdown 259 yard gem week 17 against the Broncos. Check the tape. I don’t even know whats going on in the first run. Most would be surprised to learn that he was the second most productive fantasy running back over that period of the season, behind only, you guessed it, Chris Johnson. While the Chiefs will probably bring in a back up this offseason, Charles is set to get 20 carries a game and become the focal point of the offense similar to Ray Rice. These are all wonderful reasons to draft him next season. But does everyone know this? He was basically unknown before last season started, and his midseason arrival on the scene allowed him to keep a low profile. If you don’t have to use a first round pick on him you are getting a huge steal. Make sure to keep a close eye on his average draft position so you’ll know how fast you’ll have to pull the trigger on this emerging star.

The Infirmary

As it goes every season, we lost some good men along the way. Very rarely can you predict injury, and it can strike anyone at any moment. Just ask Bill. Here are five guys whose recoveries this offseason will be important to monitor.

Ronnie Brown – What a sad loss this was. Coming into his second season off knee surgery, Brown rushed for 648 yards and eight touchdowns in only ten games in the vaunted Wildcat Offense. He was back, he was finally back! And then boom, back to the IR with a wussy, French-sounding fracture in his foot. So for the 2nd time in four years he will be entering the season coming off major surgery. While his knee injury in ’07 was more serious, its important to note his ’08 season was below par, going under 1000 yards rushing. While he did have ten touchdowns, four came in the same game week 2. Depending on how his training camp goes, I’d be wary of him on draft day.

Wes Welker – Bill has to be kicking himself. Or more likely he reminded himself he’s a genius and rationalized the decision to play Welker in the final game of the season with a playoff berth already locked up. Welker caught a pass in the first quarter and tore his ACL and MCL. There doesn’t seem to be any time table for his return, but its serious. There is some concern he won’t even be ready for the beginning of next season. His progress will be important to watch, as he’s one of the most dominant receivers in PPR.

Chris Cooley and Owen Daniels – These big name tight ends were having good seasons till they both got hurt in consecutive games in the first half of the season. Daniels was having a huge year, totaling over 500 yards and five touchdowns in eight weeks. Fortunately for the unlucky owners who drafted them, Jermichael Finley came on to the scene and saved you if you were smart enough to grab him. These guys will be valuable options at the tight end position next year since you will probably be able to get them at a discount.

Anthony Gonzalez – What a horrible disappointment. He was hyped as a top 20 receiver going into this season, his value elevated due to his new #2 receiver position in the vaunted Colts offense. Then he actually played a game, apparently couldn’t handle the stress,  and collapsed coming off the line without ever catching a pass. Then they teased us with a week 8 return date, only to see him hit setback after setback and never see the field again. This has allowed Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to show their skills, making Gonzalez’s role in the offense next season unclear. Training camp will paint a clearer picture, but don’t assume he’ll have the same role as he was supposed to have.

Quarterbacks of a Certain Age

I promised I would cover the possible retirements of two playoff quarterbacks. It defies medicine that two professional athletes over 38 have led their teams on playoff runs. But since its Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, we take it for granted. Warner threw for 3,700 yards, the third highest total of his career, while Favre posted 4,200 yards with only seven interceptions, the interceptions the lowest of his entire 18 year career. Not exactly the numbers you’d expect from guys supposedly on the verge of retirement. However Warner has been quoted as saying he doesn’t enjoy football anymore, and many believe he will announce his retirement soon. This would be extremely detrimental to the fantasy values of every Cardinal’s wide out, as Matt Leinart hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a suitable heir to the throne. May help Beanie Wells’ value though.

Favre’s status is a bit more muddled, mostly because you can’t believe a word he says when it comes to retirement. A Super Bowl victory, while proving he can still bring it, may raise his chances of retirement, John Elway style. This would be devastating to Sidney Rice’s continuing emergence as a top wide out. Tavaris Jackson really excite anyone? Get ready for a long offseason of Rachel Nichols camped out on Favre’s front lawn.

Wide Receivers on the Move

In traditional wide receiver fashion, there are three big names unhappy with their contract/coach/team/parking spot and are  likely to have new homes next season:

Anquan Boldin – Boldin has been trying to get out of the desert seemingly forever, but no one was willing to give up more than a 3rd round pick and a player. Now with an injury history and another year of age, rumor is the Cardinals would be willing to accept that kind of offer. With Steve Breaston and Early Doucet showing some promise, the Cardinals believe Boldin’s production can be replaced. But not with Leinart at the helm…

Brandon Marshall – Brandon Marshall wants out of Denver. Wanna know how I know? The guy’s nickname is Baby TO, so this kind of behavior shouldn’t surprise anyone, but the act seems to emit finality: its going to happen this offseason. But they’re going to need to get a strong offer for their top receiver who has registered over 100 receptions in three consecutive seasons.

Joshua Cribbs -A very interesting prospect. If he goes to a team that utilizes his skills, he’s got the tools to explode. Reportedly the Browns gave him a low ball offer and he turned it down without even blinking. We’ll have to see what Holmgren wants to do, I can’t believe he’d want to give up arguably the best player on the team very easily. Miami has been mentioned the most frequently as a trade partner.

Some possible locations for these players include Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, and Tampa Bay. Though I think the Bears already traded all their draft picks for the rest of eternity so I don’t know what they’ll have to offer.

Part two next week