Thomas Jones: Fantasy Impact

Thomas Jones has put a monkeywrench into the plans of Jamaal Charles

Thomas Jones recently inked a 2 year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs that would pay him around $5 million total. Thomas Jones is coming off of his 5th straight season of 1,100+ yards rushing, including a career high 1,402 with the Jets in 2009. History shows us that most running backs hit the proverbial wall at 30 but not Jones here. At age 31, he posted career highs in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns (14). Entering the 2010 season, he’ll be at the ripe old age of 32. A few things that concern with me this move. He posted career highs at the age of 31 and that the 2009 season was a contract year. Curtis Martin was another New York Jet that posted career highs at the age of 31 and he fell off a cliff in the 2005 season and a bone on bone knee injury ultimately ended his career. Granted, he came off a 371 carry season but, still, it’s a bit concerning in TJ’s case. Jones knows he’s not getting any younger and this two year deal could be his last contract and he knows this. Jones is entering a situation with a new offensive coordinator in town and a rebuilding offense in KC. All things are signing to positive steps in Kansas City.

I believe the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones to be the primary back, so it will be interesting to see how fast he can pick up the new offense in KC. The person’s value that this signing really hurts, IMO, is Jamaal Charles and if I were him, I’d be extremely upset (and that’s using light language). I’m sure the yelling you heard after the signing, was not Charles, but that of Craig Davis as he was super high and I believe had him ranked early as a top 5 back. Charles has paid his dues being the back-up to Larry Johnson for his first 2 seasons in the league and after getting the chance to start at the mid-way point in 2009, he took the ball and ran with it. Charles posted a 5.9 YPC average, scored 7 touchdowns and ran for 1,120 yards and threw in 40 receptions, which made him a money waiver wire pick-up in PPR leagues. This will be one running back situation to monitor closely throughout the entire offseason to see how things shake out during training camp. My money is on Thomas Jones coming out ahead slightly as the feature back but, should be giving up touches to Charles soon enough and will end up sharing carries. The Chiefs, on paper, have a favorable schedule against the run facing the division rival Raiders twice, Arizona Cardinals (who have lost two key defensive playmakers), Jaguars, Rams, Browns and Seahawks. In early ADP reports, Jamaal Charles has an ADP of around 10.3 where Thomas Jones has an ADP around 58.9.   As drafts happen, this will definitely change as I think Charles’ ADP is going to drop drastically and I think TJ’s will stay right where it is.

Another player that this signing will have an impact on, is Shonn Greene. Those that own Greene in dynasty leagues should be jumping for joy now that Jones is out of the picture. Leon Washington is still a factor but, might be a 3rd down back or special teams specialist. It’s difficult at this time to project where to draft the three running backs, but if I were a betting man, I’d bet that the 2009 season was Thomas Jones’s last season of RB1 production and could be in an RBBC mix with Charles. Shonn Greene has RB1 upside and I believe should be considered a top 15 back now that Jones is out of the picture.